中国全科医学 ›› 2024, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (02): 245-252.DOI: 10.12114/j.issn.1007-9572.2023.0505

• 论著·流行病学研究 • 上一篇    

1990—2019年中国痛风疾病负担趋势及未来十年预测研究

方珈文1, 冯天元2, 周志衡2, 李子悦1, 颜丹虹1, 林凯程3,*()   

  1. 1510515 广东省广州市,南方医科大学卫生管理学院
    2518118 广东省深圳市坪山区人民医院
    3510515 广东省广州市,南方医科大学南方医院
  • 收稿日期:2023-07-26 修回日期:2023-09-05 出版日期:2024-01-15 发布日期:2023-10-23
  • 通讯作者: 林凯程

  • 作者贡献:方珈文、冯天元、周志衡提出研究目标、研究设计;方珈文负责数据收集、数据分析、论文撰写;李子悦负责图表制作;颜丹虹负责文献整理;林凯程负责论文修订、文章质量控制与审校。
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目(2020YFC2006401); 广东省哲学社会科学"十三五"规划项目(GD18XGL53); 深圳市科技计划项目(JCYJ20210324135411031); 坪山区卫生健康系统科研项目(202289)

Trend Analysis of Gout Burden in China from 1990 to 2019 and Prediction for the Next Ten Years

FANG Jiawen1, FENG Tianyuan2, ZHOU Zhiheng2, LI Ziyue1, YAN Danhong1, LIN Kaicheng3,*()   

  1. 1School of Health Management, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China
    2Shenzhen Pingshan District People's Hospital, Shenzhen 518118, China
    3Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China
  • Received:2023-07-26 Revised:2023-09-05 Published:2024-01-15 Online:2023-10-23
  • Contact: LIN Kaicheng

摘要: 背景 痛风是常见的炎症性关节炎之一,对人们的健康造成很大的危害,但目前针对我国痛风疾病负担趋势分析与预测的相关研究有限。 目的 分析1990—2019年中国痛风疾病负担的变化趋势,并预测未来10年痛风的标化伤残调整寿命年(DALYs)率、标化发病率和标化患病率。 方法 提取全球疾病负担研究(GBD)2019有关中国痛风DALYs、发病情况和患病情况等疾病负担指标,采用Joinpoint回归模型计算标化DALYs率、标化发病率和标化患病率的年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC),采用自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA模型)对2020—2029年的标化DALYs率、标化发病率和标化患病率进行预测。 结果 1990—2019年,中国痛风DALYs从187 436人年增至510 485人年,增长了172.35%,发病人数从1 181 969例增至3 041 329例,增长了157.31%,患病人数从5 864 143例增至16 161 325例,增长了175.60%(对应的标化率分别增长了28.45%、25.92%和28.63%)。Joinpoint回归结果显示,1990—2019年,标化DALYs率、标化发病率、标化患病率整体呈上升趋势(AAPC分别为0.9%、0.8%、0.9%,P<0.05)。痛风疾病负担具有明显的性别和年龄差异,男性疾病负担高于女性,标化DALYs率、标化发病率和标化患病率男女性别比范围分别为3.23~3.51、3.14~3.40和3.17~3.42。女性各指标年龄高峰总体比男性延后,女性在45岁之后疾病负担开始加重,男女性疾病负担均在90岁之后再次增加。ARIMA模型结果显示,预计到2029年,因痛风造成的标化DALYs率和标化发病率分别下降0.33%和0.45%,标化患病率上升0.71%。 结论 1990—2019年中国痛风疾病负担增长趋势明显,存在明显的性别和年龄差异,且出现年轻化趋势。预计到2029年,因痛风造成的标化患病率略有上升。

关键词: 痛风, 发病率, 患病率, 疾病负担, 趋势分析, ARIMA模型, 伤残调整寿命年

Abstract:

Background

Gout is the most common inflammatory arthritis, which causes great harm to people's health, however, there are limited studies on the trend analysis and prediction of gout burden in China.

Objective

To analyze the changing trend of gout in China from 1990 to 2019, and predict the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate, incidence rate and prevalence rate of gout in the next 10 years.

Methods

The indicators of DALYs, incidence, and prevalence of gout in China were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD 2019), the annual percentage change (APC) and annual average percentage change (AAPC) of the age-standardized DALYs rate, age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate were calculated using the Joinpoint regression model, autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA model) was used to predict the age-standardized DALYs rate, age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate in 2020-2029.

Results

In 1990-2019, the DALYs of gout in China increased from 187 436 to 510 485 person-years, with an increase of 172.35%, the number of cases increased from 1 181 969 to 3 041 329, with an increase of 157.31%, the number of patients increased from 5 864 143 to 16 161 325, with an increase of 175.60% (the corresponding standardized rates increased by 28.45%, 25.92% and 28.63%, respectively). Joinpoint regression results showed an overall increasing trend in the age-standardized DALYs rate, age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate (AAPC was 0.9%, 0.8%, 0.9%, respectively, P<0.05) from 1990 to 2019. The gout burden had significant gender and age differences, with men having a higher burden than women, and the range of the male-to-female gender ratios for the standardized DALYs rate, age-standardized incidence rate, and age-standardized prevalence rate was 3.23 to 3.51, 3.14 to 3.40, and 3.17 to 3.42, respectively. The age peaks for each indicator were generally delayed in females compared to males, the burden began to increase in females after 45 years of age, and the burden increased again after 90 years of age for both males and females. The ARIMA model results showed that the age-standardized DALYs rate and age-standardized incidence rate due to gout are projected to decrease by 0.33% and 0.45%, respectively, and the age-standardized prevalence rate to increase by 0.71% by 2029.

Conclusion

From 1990 to 2019, the gout burden in China showed an obvious increasing trend, with significant gender and age differences, and a trend of younger age. The age-standardized prevalence rate due to gout is expected to increase slightly by 2029.

Key words: Gout, Incidence, Prevalence, Burden of illness, Trend analysis, ARIMA model, DALYs