中国全科医学 ›› 2026, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (19): 2735-2743.DOI: 10.12114/j.issn.1007-9572.2025.0553

所属专题: 呼吸疾病文章合辑

• 医学循证 • 上一篇    下一篇

不同筛查指标下慢性阻塞性肺疾病前期人群发展为慢性阻塞性肺疾病风险的Meta分析

张文博1, 王骏龙1, 张玉萍1, 蒋帅2, 王华启3,4,*()   

  1. 1.450052 河南省郑州市,郑州大学第一临床学院
    2.450052 河南省郑州市,郑州大学第一附属医院 河南省医院管理研究院
    3.450052 河南省郑州市,郑州大学第一附属医院 河南省慢性病防治与智能健康管理重点实验室
    4.450052 河南省郑州市,郑州大学第一附属医院 河南省互联智能健康研究所
  • 收稿日期:2025-09-15 修回日期:2026-04-20 出版日期:2026-07-05 发布日期:2026-06-05
  • 通讯作者: 王华启

  • 作者贡献:

    张文博负责研究构思与设计、研究资料的收集和整理、论文初稿编撰;王骏龙、张玉萍负责数据的提取、数据质量评价和论文整体内容修改完善;蒋帅、王华启负责研究的协调与指导、整体研究方案的制订与优化,确保研究方向的科学性和可行性,对稿件整体负责。

  • 基金资助:
    河南省重大科技专项项目(241100310200); 2023年中青年学科带头人资助项目(12271)

The Risk of Pre-COPD Populations Progressing to COPD under Different Criteria: a Meta-analysis

ZHANG Wenbo1, WANG Junlong1, ZHANG Yuping1, JIANG Shuai2, WANG Huaqi3,4,*()   

  1. 1. The First Clinical College of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450052, China
    2. Institute for Hospital Management of Henan Province, the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450052, China
    3. Henan Key Laboratory of Chronic Disease Prevention and Therapy & Intelligent Health Management, the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University Management, Zhengzhou 450052, China
    4. Henan Institute of Interconnected Intelligent Health, the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450052, China
  • Received:2025-09-15 Revised:2026-04-20 Published:2026-07-05 Online:2026-06-05
  • Contact: WANG Huaqi

摘要: 背景 慢性阻塞性肺疾病(以下简称慢阻肺病)是全球三大致死性疾病之一,早期预防对于减轻全球卫生保健负担尤为重要。为了加强临床医生对慢阻肺病高危人群的认识,GOLD指南明确提出了慢阻肺病前期一词。与正常人群相比,慢阻肺病前期人群慢阻肺病发病率更高,但鲜有研究对各指标的相对有效性进行定量分析。 目的 阐明不同筛查指标下慢阻肺病前期患者最终发展为慢阻肺病的情况,并量化其进展为慢阻肺病的风险,比较不同筛查指标的临床价值。 方法 检索中国知网、万方数据知识服务平台、维普网、PubMed、Embase和Web of Science数据库建库至2025-11-30发表的关于慢阻肺病前期进展为慢阻肺病的队列研究,由两名研究者独立进行文献检索、筛选、数据提取、质量评估,然后采用R 4.4.1进行Meta分析,针对不同筛查指标所定义的慢阻肺病前期组与对照组中的慢阻肺病发病率差异,计算其HR、RR、OR,评估其危险性。 结果 共纳入23项研究,涵盖了6个分组标准:非阻塞性慢性支气管炎(NOCB)、保留比率的肺功能受损(PRISm)、第一秒用力呼气容积/用力肺活量(FEV1/FVC)<75%、低一氧化碳弥散量(DLCO)、第三秒用力呼气容积/第六秒用力呼气容积(FEV3/FEV6)<正常值下限(LLN)和可变性气流受限。其中,FEV1/FVC<75%与慢阻肺病发病相关性最强(RR=11.98,95%CI=3.91~36.72),其他指标关联强度由强到弱依次为:可变性气流受限(RR=4.51,95%CI=2.37~8.57)、低DLCO(RR=4.05,95%CI=1.49~11.05)、PRISm(RR=2.33,95%CI=1.72~3.14)、FEV3/FEV6<LLN(RR=2.11,95%CI=1.48~3.03)、NOCB(RR=1.36,95%CI=1.02~1.81)。 结论 具有NOCB、PRISm、低DLCO、可变性气流受限、FEV3/FEV6<LLN和FEV1/FVC<75%的人群发展为慢阻肺病的风险高于对照,其中FEV1/FVC<75%的人群风险最大。

关键词: 肺疾病,慢性阻塞性, 慢阻肺病前期, 保留比率的肺功能受损, 可变性气流受限, 荟萃分析

Abstract:

Background

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is one of the three leading causes of death worldwide. Early prevention is particularly important for reducing the global healthcare burden. To enhance clinicians' awareness of high-risk populations for COPD and thereby enable early identification of such individuals, the GOLD guidelines have explicitly introduced the pre-COPD. Compared with the general population, individuals in the pre-COPD stage have a higher incidence of COPD; however, few studies have conducted a quantitative analysis of the relative validity of the various indicators.

Objective

Clarify the progression of patients with pre-COPD to COPD under different screening indicators, quantify their risk of developing COPD, and compare the clinical value of different screening indicators.

Methods

Cohort studies on the progression of pre-COPD to COPD published from the establishment of databases to November 30, 2025, were retrieved from CNKI, Wanfang Data, VIP Chinese Journal Service Platform, PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science. Two researchers independently conducted retrieval, literature eligibility screening, data extraction, and quality assessment. Meta-analysis was then performed using R 4.4.1. For the difference in COPD incidence between high-risk populations defined by different screening criteria and normal populations, Hazard Ratio (HR), Relative Risk (RR), and Odds Ratio (OR) were collected or calculated for aggregation and comparison to assess the risk.

Results

A total of 23 studies were included, covering 6 grouping criteria: NOCB, PRISm, FEV1/FVC<75%, DLCO, FEV3/FEV6<lower limit of normal (LLN), and variable airflow limitation. Among them, FEV1/FVC<75% had the strongest correlation with COPD incidence (RR=11.98, 95%CI=3.91-36.72). The correlation strength of other indicators in descending order was as follows: variable airflow limitation (RR=4.51, 95%CI=2.37-8.57), low DLCO (RR=4.05, 95%CI=1.49-11.05), PRISm (RR=2.33, 95%CI=1.72-3.14), FEV3/FEV6<LLN (RR=2.11, 95%CI=1.48-3.03), and NOCB (RR=1.36, 95%CI=1.02-1.81).

Conclusion

Populations with NOCB, PRISm, low DLCO, variable airflow limitation, FEV3/FEV6<LLN, or FEV1/FVC<75% have a higher risk of developing COPD than normal populations, among which the population with FEV1/FVC < 75% has the highest risk.

Key words: Pulmonary disease, chronic obstructive, Pre-COPD, Preserved ratio impaired spirometry, Variable airflow limitation, Meta-analysis

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