Hypertensive nephropathy, a common chronic kidney disease, is a significant contributor to end-stage renal disease. Analyzing and predicting its epidemiological trends is crucial for the prevention and control of chronic kidney disease.

This study aims to analyze the temporal trends in the incidence and mortality of hypertensive nephropathy in China from 1990 to 2021 and to provide a theoretical basis for developing prevention and control strategies.

Data on the incidence and mortality of hypertensive nephropathy in China were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. Joinpoint regression models were used to analyze the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in incidence and mortality. Age-period-cohort models were applied to estimate the age, period, and cohort effects by gender. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) methods were employed to predict the standardized incidence and mortality rates for both genders from 2022 to 2032.

After age standardization, the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) for both males and females showed a slight decline from 1990 to 1995, followed by a gradual increase. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for males decreased from 5.44 per 100 000 in 1990 to 4.72 per 100 000 in 2021, while for females, it decreased from 3.86 per 100 000 to 2.75 per 100 000, with a more pronounced decline in females. Joinpoint regression analysis indicated an overall increasing trend in ASIR (AAPC for males: 0.43%, females: 0.64%, P<0.05). The fastest decline in male ASIR occurred from 1990 to 1992 (APC=-1.62%, P<0.05), while the fastest increase was from 2019 to 2021 (APC=1.30%, P<0.05). For females, the fastest decline in ASIR was from 1990 to 1995 (APC=-1.31%, P<0.05). Overall, the ASMR rate showed a decreasing trend (AAPC for males: -0.51%, females: -1.09%, P<0.05), with a more significant decline in females. The fastest decline in male ASMR was from 2004 to 2007 (APC=-3.26%, P<0.05), while the fastest increase was from 1998 to 2004 (APC=1.30%, P<0.05). For females, the fastest decline in ASMR was also from 2004 to 2007 (APC=-4.47%, P<0.05). Age-period-cohort analysis revealed that males generally had higher incidence and mortality rates than females across all age groups, with rates increasing with age. The incidence growth accelerated after age 60-65, and mortality growth accelerated after age 70. The period effect on incidence risk was slightly higher in females than in males, while the cohort effect showed an overall increasing trend in incidence and a decreasing trend in ASMR for both genders. Predictions from 2022 to 2032 indicate a continued rise in ASIR and a sustained decline in mortality for both genders.

From 1990 to 2021, the ASIR of hypertensive nephropathy in China showed an overall upward trend, while ASMR decreased. Both incidence and mortality increased with age, particularly in the elderly. Over the next decade, ASIR is expected to continue rising, while ASMR will decline slowly. These findings suggest a need to focus on male and elderly patients in developing targeted prevention and control measures.