关键词: 椎间盘, 预后, 预测

Abstract: Objective　To explore the factors for predicting the prognosis of cervical intervertebral disc disease（CIDD），providing evidence for early delivering preventive care for reducing the incidence of long-term complications.Methods　One hundred and thirteen patients who received a confirmed diagnosis of CIDD and treatment from Department of Spinal Surgery，Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University were involved from January 2013 to January 2015.Baseline clinical data（sex，age，duration of suffering from CIDD，duration of smoking，underlying disorders，diagnosis），baseline cervical spine function assessment results〔Japanese Orthopedic Association （JOA） score，visual analogue scale（VAS） score，Neck Disability Index（NDI），cervical range of motion（ROM）〕 and imaging findings were collected and analyzed.Intraoperative data（operative approach，operative segment，operative duration，and intraoperative blood loss） were recorded.All of them were followed up for a period of 2 years and those with end-point events were analyzed.The potential prognostic factors for CIDD were investigated by multivariate Cox regression analysis and their performances were explored by ROC analysis.Results　Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the duration of suffering from CIDD，JOA score，VAS score，and NDI were independent factors affecting the prognosis（P<0.05）．Moreover，the duration of suffering from CIDD demonstrated a much smaller AUC compared with other three prognostic factors（P<0.05）．Conclusion　JOA score ，VAS score，combined with NDI　can be used as a predictive evaluation system for CIDD，which is expected to be a guidance for clinical treatment of this disease.

Key words: Intervertebral disc, Prognosis, Forecasting