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中国全科医学 ›› 2024, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (18): 2260-2264.DOI: 10.12114/j.issn.1007-9572.2023.0773

• 论著·流行病学研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

2009—2021年中国心血管疾病死亡趋势分析与预测研究

苗立鹏, 任柯好, 李梦蝶, 吕军城*()   

  1. 261053　山东省潍坊市，山东第二医科大学公共卫生学院
  • 收稿日期:2023-11-10 修回日期:2024-01-08 出版日期:2024-06-20 发布日期:2024-03-22
  • 通讯作者: 吕军城


  • 作者贡献：

    苗立鹏、吕军城提出研究命题及研究思路，负责设计研究方案；苗立鹏、任柯好负责数据收集、采集、清洗和统计学分析以及图、表的制作；苗立鹏负责论文起草；李梦蝶、吕军城负责论文的修订；吕军城负责最终版本修订，对论文整体负责。

  • 基金资助:
    山东省自然科学基金资助项目(ZR2021MH408); 中国学位与研究生教育学会教研项目(2020ZDB44); 2021校级思想政治课示范课程; 山东省政府资助海外访学项目

Trend Analysis and Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in China from 2009 to 2021

MIAO Lipeng, REN Kehao, LI Mengdie, LYU Juncheng*()   

  1. School of Public Health, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang 261053, China
  • Received:2023-11-10 Revised:2024-01-08 Published:2024-06-20 Online:2024-03-22
  • Contact: LYU Juncheng

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摘要： 背景 随着不良生活方式流行和人口老龄化趋势加快，我国心血管疾病死亡率仍居高不下。及时了解我国当前以及未来心血管疾病死亡流行趋势，并探讨可能的影响因素和解决方案，可为心血管疾病防治措施的制订提供参考。 目的 分析2009—2021年我国心血管疾病死亡趋势并预测2022—2030年我国心血管疾病死亡流行趋势。 方法 按性别、城乡、地区和年龄划分从中国疾病预防控制中心网站发布的《中国死因监测数据集（2009—2021年）》中选取心血管疾病死亡数据进行整理，使用Joinpoint回归模型计算年度变化百分比（APC）和平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）分析变化趋势。并使用R（4.3.1）软件建立GM（1，1）模型，预测2022—2030年我国心血管疾病粗死亡率。 结果 2009—2021年我国心血管疾病粗死亡率由2009年的235.83/10万上升至2021年的353.31/10万，AAPC为3.3%（95%CI=2.8%~3.8%，P<0.001）；标化死亡率由2009年的281.82/10万下降至2021年的221.24/10万，AAPC为-1.9%（95%CI=-2.6%~-1.2%，P<0.001）。2009—2021年我国心血管疾病不同性别（AAPC男性=-2.0%，AAPC女性=-2.1%）、城乡（AAPC城市=-1.3%，AAPC农村=-2.4%）、地区（AAPC东部=-2.1%，AAPC中部=-2.2%，AAPC西部=-1.0%）标化死亡率均呈下降趋势（P<0.05）；其中女性下降幅度大于男性，农村大于城市，中部地区大于东部和西部地区。GM（1，1）模型结果显示，2022—2030年中国心血管疾病粗死亡率将持续上升至461.57/10万。 结论 2009—2021年我国心血管疾病整体粗死亡率呈持续上升趋势，而整体标化死亡率呈下降趋势。我国心血管疾病死亡负担仍面临严峻挑战，预测2022—2030年我国心血管病粗死亡率将持续上升，应制订实施科学有效的心血管疾病防治工作，重点关注男性、农村和老年居民。

关键词: 心血管疾病, 死亡率, 粗死亡率, 标化死亡率, Joinpoint回归模型, GM（1，1）模型, 预测

Abstract:

Background

With the prevalence of unhealthy lifestyles and the accelerated trend of population aging, the mortality rate of cardiovascular diseases remains high in China. A timely understanding of the current and future trends of cardiovascular disease mortality in China, as well as exploring potential influencing factors and solutions, can provide a reference for formulating cardiovascular disease prevention and control measures.

Objective

To analyze the trend of cardiovascular disease mortality in China from 2009 to 2021 and predict the future trends from 2022 to 2030.

Methods

Cardiovascular disease mortality data were selected and analyzed based on gender, urban-rural areas, regions, and age groups from the "China Death Surveillance Data Set (2009-2021) " published by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) to analyze the changing trends. Additionally, a GM (1, 1) model was established using R (4.3.1) software to predict the crude mortality rate of cardiovascular diseases in China from 2022 to 2030.

Results

From 2009 to 2021, the crude mortality rate of cardiovascular diseases in China increased from 235.83/100 000 in 2009 to 353.31/100 000 in 2021, with the AAPC of 3.3% (95%CI=2.8% to 3.8%, P<0.001). The age-standardized mortality rate decreased from 281.82/100 000 in 2009 to 221.24/100 000 in 2021, with the AAPC of -1.9% (95%CI=-2.6% to -1.2%, P<0.001). During this period, the standardized mortality rate for cardiovascular diseases in China showed a decreasing trend across different genders (AAPC for males=-2.0%, AAPC for females=-2.1%; P<0.05), urban and rural areas (AAPC for urban=-1.3%, AAPC for rural=-2.4%; P<0.05), and regions (AAPC for eastern region=-2.1%, AAPC for central region=-2.2%, AAPC for western region=-1.0%; P<0.05). Notably, the mortality rate decline was greater in females than males, in rural areas than urban areas, and the central region than the eastern and western regions. The results of the GM (1, 1) model showed that the crude mortality rate of cardiovascular diseases in China will continue to rise to 461.57/100 000 from 2022 to 2030.

Conclusion

From 2009 to 2021, the overall crude mortality rate of cardiovascular disease in China has shown a continuous upward trend, while the overall standardized mortality rate has shown a downward trend. The burden of cardiovascular disease mortality in China still faces severe challenges. The GM (1, 1) model predicts a continuous increase in the crude mortality rate of cardiovascular diseases in China from 2022 to 2030. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate and implement scientifically effective measures for the prevention and control of cardiovascular diseases, with a focus on male, elderly and rural residents.

Key words: Cardiovascular diseases, Mortality, Crude mortality rate, Age-standardized mortality rate, Joinpoint regression model, GM (1, 1) model, Prediction

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