Intestinal infectious diseases are one of the common infectious diseases. Analysis and prediction of their epidemic status can provide certain reference for the prevention and treatment of intestinal infectious diseases.

To understand the incidence and mortality of three enteric infectious diseases, including diarrheal diseases, typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever, and invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella intestinal infections in China from 1990 to 2019, and to predict their morbidity and mortality from 2020 to 2030, so as to provide reference for the prevention and control of intestinal infectious diseases.

Based on the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Database (GBD), the incidence and mortality data of three enteric infectious diseases, including diarrheal diseases, typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever, and invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella intestinal infections in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected. The change rate (%) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were used to describe the changing trends of the above three intestinal infectious diseases. The autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) was used to predict the morbidity and mortality of the above three enteric infectious diseases in China from 2020 to 2030.

There was no statistically significant change in the incidence of diarrheal diseases from 1990 to 2019 (EAPC=0.09, P>0.05), while the incidence of typhoid fever, paratyphoid fever and invasive non-typhoid salmonella intestinal infections showed a downward trend (EAPC were -4.0% and -0.64% respectively, P<0.05). The mortality rates of diarrheal diseases, typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever, and invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella intestinal infections all showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2019 (EAPC were -8.39%, -3.38%, and -1.87%, respectively, P<0.05). Among all age groups, the incidence of diarrheal disease among people aged ≥70 years in 2019 was the highest among all age groups, and it was on the rise (EAPC=0.27, P<0.05). The mortality rates of the above three intestinal infectious diseases in all age groups from 1990 to 2019 showed a downward trend (P<0.05). The ARIMA model prediction results show that the incidence of diarrheal diseases in China will be on an upward trend from 2020 to 2030, while the incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fever and invasive non-typhoid Salmonella will be on a downward trend. The estimated incidence of the above three diseases was 58 793.04/10⁵, 5.26/10⁵, 0.447/10⁵, respectively. In addition, the mortality rates of diarrheal diseases, typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever, and invasive non-typhoid Salmonella in our country will all show a downward trend from 2020 to 2030. The mortality rates of the above three diseases in 2030 were expected to be 0.214/10⁵ and 0.039/10⁵, 0.026/10⁵, respectively.

The mortality rates of diarrheal diseases, typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever, and invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella intestinal infections in China will show a downward trend in 2030. Except for the incidence of diarrheal diseases, which will show an upward trend, the incidence of the other two diseases will show a downward trend. It reminds the government and relevant health departments to pay attention to diarrheal diseases and adopt different prevention and control measures for different groups of people.

肠道传染病是常见的传染性疾病之一，分析和预测其流行现状能够为肠道传染病的防治提供一定的参考。

了解1990—2019年中国腹泻病、伤寒与副伤寒和侵袭性非伤寒沙门菌肠道感染3种肠道传染病的发病和死亡情况，并预测2020—2030年其发病率和死亡率，为肠道传染病的防控提供参考。

基于2019全球疾病负担研究数据库（GBD），收集1990—2019年中国腹泻病、伤寒与副伤寒和侵袭性非伤寒沙门菌肠道感染3种肠道传染病的发病和死亡数据，根据变化率（%）和年估计百分比（EAPC）分析以上3种肠道感染疾病的变化趋势。利用自回归移动平均模型（ARIMA）预测2020—2030年中国以上3种肠道传染病的发病率和死亡率。

1990—2019年腹泻病的发病率变化无统计学意义（EAPC=0.09，P>0.05），而伤寒与副伤寒和侵袭性非伤寒沙门菌肠道感染的发病率均呈下降趋势（EAPC分别为-4.0%、-0.64%，P<0.05）。1990—2019年腹泻病、伤寒与副伤寒和侵袭性非伤寒沙门菌肠道感染的死亡率均呈下降趋势（EAPC分别为-8.39%、-3.38%、-1.87%，P<0.05）。在各年龄组中，2019年≥70岁人群腹泻病的发病率在各年龄组中最高，且呈上升趋势（EAPC=0.27，P<0.05）。1990—2019年所有年龄组以上3种肠道传染病的死亡率均呈下降趋势（P<0.05）。ARIMA模型预测结果显示，2020—2030年我国腹泻病发病率呈上升趋势，伤寒与副伤寒和侵袭性非伤寒沙门菌的发病率呈下降趋势，预计以上3种疾病的发病率分别为58 793.04/10万、5.26/10万、0.447/10万。此外，2020—2030年我国腹泻病、伤寒与副伤寒和侵袭性非伤寒沙门菌的死亡率均呈下降趋势，预计2030年以上3种疾病的死亡率分别为0.214/10万、0.039/10万、0.026/10万。

2030年我国腹泻病、伤寒与副伤寒和侵袭性非伤寒沙门菌肠道感染的死亡率呈下降趋势；除腹泻病的发病率呈上升趋势外，其余两种疾病的发病率呈下降趋势，提示政府及相关卫生部门应当重视关注腹泻病，并针对不同人群采取不同防控措施。