Abstract: Background　Parkinson's disease（PD） is a common neurodegenerative disorder，and its global disease burden continues to increase. Due to China's large population base and rapid aging process，the country faces even more severe challenges. Objective　Based on the Global Burden of Disease（GBD） 2021 database，this study analyzes the differences and trends in the disease burden of PD between China and the global level from 1990 to 2021，predicts future changes in disease burden，and provides a scientific basis for optimizing PD prevention and treatment strategies. Methods　Using data from GBD 2021，indicators such as PD incidence，prevalence，mortality，and disability-adjusted life years（DALYs） for China and the global level from 1990 to 2021 were extracted. An age-period-cohort model was employed to analyze epidemiological trends，and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to predict the disease burden from 2022 to 2035. Results　From 1990 to 2021， the number of PD incident cases in China increased by 455.7%（compared to a 220.1% increase globally）. The age-standardized incidence rate（ASIR） showed an upward trend，rising from 12.83 per 100 000 to 24.34 per 100 000，with an estimated annual percentage change（EAPC） of 2.16%（compared to 1.09% globally）. The number of prevalent cases increased by 678.9% （compared to 273.8% globally）. In China，the age-standardized mortality rate（ASMR） exhibited a declining trend， decreasing from 6.11 per 100 000 to 5.03 per 100 000，with an EAPC of -0.76%. In contrast，the global ASMR showed an upward trend（EAPC=0.18%）. The age-period-cohort model revealed that the growth rate of the PD burden in China was higher than the global average，particularly among males and individuals aged 75-79 years. Predictions from the Bayesian age-period-cohort model indicated that by 2035，China's ASIR（32.26 per 100 000） and age-standardized prevalence rate（ASPR）（332.67 per 100 000）for PD will far exceed global levels. Conclusion　The disease burden of PD is growing rapidly，primarily driven by population aging. However，China demonstrates a more favorable trend in mortality control compared to the global average. PD shows a higher incidence among elderly individuals and males. Future efforts should focus on strengthening management，optimizing policies，and emphasizing comorbid disease management to reduce the overall burden. This study provides data-driven support for formulating targeted PD prevention and control strategies.

Key words: Parkinson's disease, Incidence rate, Disease burden, Predictive analysis, Age-period-cohort model, Bayesian age-period-cohort model

摘要： 背景　帕金森病（PD）是一种常见的神经退行性疾病，全球疾病负担持续加重，中国由于人口基数大、老龄化进程快，面临更严峻的挑战。目的　基于2021年全球疾病负担（GBD 2021）数据库，分析1990—2021年中国与全球PD疾病负担差异及趋势，预测未来疾病负担变化，为优化PD防治策略提供科学依据。方法　利用GBD 2021数据，提取1990—2021年全球及中国PD发病率、患病率、死亡率和伤残调整寿命年（DALYs）等指标；采用年龄-时期-队列模型分析流行病学趋势，结合贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测2022—2035年疾病负担。结果　1990—2021年中国PD发病例数增长了455.7%（全球增长了220.1%），年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）呈上升趋势，由12.83/10万升至24.34/10万，估计年度百分比变化（EAPC）为2.16%（全球为1.09%）；患病例数增长678.9%（全球273.8%）。中国年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）呈下降趋势，由6.11/10万降至5.03/10万，EAPC为-0.76%；而全球ASMR呈上升趋势（EAPC=0.18%）。年龄-时期-队列模型显示，中国PD负担增速高于全球，男性及75~79岁年龄段人群尤为突出。贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测结果显示，至2035年，中国PD的ASIR（32.26/10万）和年龄标准化患病率（ASPR）（332.67/10万）将远超全球水平。结论　PD疾病负担增长迅猛，主要受人口老龄化驱动，但中国死亡率控制趋势优于全球。PD在高龄和男性患者中更好发。未来需加强管理、优化政策，并关注共病管理以降低整体负担。本研究为制定针对性的PD防控策略提供了数据支持。

关键词: 帕金森病, 发病率, 疾病负担, 预测分析, 年龄-时期-队列模型, 贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列