Background The pathogenesis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is complex. Analyzing and forecasting the epidemiological status can provide valuable insights for COPD prevention and control.
Objective To examine COPD incidence, prevalence, and mortality in China from 1990 to 2021, and predict the incidence and mortality rates for 2022-2032 to inform COPD prevention and treatment efforts.
Methods Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, the incidence, prevalence, and mortality of COPD in China from 1990 to 2021 were collected. The change rate and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were used to describe the changing trends of COPD. The autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) was used to predict the incidence, prevalence and mortality of COPD in China from 2022 to 2032.
Results The standardized incidence and prevalence of COPD in the whole Chinese population from 1990 to 2021 showed an increasing trend (EAPC were 2.25% and 2.53%, respectively, t values of 71.35 and 165.91, respectively, P<0.001); whereas the standardized mortality rate showed a decreasing trend compared with that in 1990 (EAPC=-0.31%, P<0.05). In 2021, the standardized incidence rate of COPD in Chinese men was 308.68/100 000 and the prevalence rate was 3 358.06/100 000; both the incidence and prevalence rates of COPD in men showed an increasing trend compared with 1990 (EAPC were 2.32%, 2.48%, t values of 64.23 and 39.67, respectively, P<0.001); whereas the standardized mortality rate in men increased from 97.13/100 000 to 101.05/100 000, but was not statistically significant in terms of trend (EAPC=0.05%, t=0.62, P=0.54). In 2021, the standardized incidence rate of COPD in Chinese women was 320.70/100 000, and the standardized prevalence rate was 3 829.79/100 000; compared with 1990, the standardized incidence and prevalence rates of COPD in women showed an increasing trend (EAPC were 2.19% and 2.59%, t values of 25.29 and 33.19, respectively, P<0.001); the standardized mortality rate in women showed a decreasing trend (EAPC=-0.77%, t=-3.36, P<0.01), from 91.43/100 000 in 1990 to 74.18/100 000. In 2021, the standardized incidence and prevalence of COPD in Chinese females were 1.04 and 1.14 times higher than that of males, respectively; and the standardized mortality rate of COPD in males was 1.36 times higher than that of females. In the age-stratified analysis, there was a weak increasing trend in the age group of 25-29 years (EAPC=0.05%, P<0.01), and fluctuations in the incidence of standardization in the age group of 30-44 years, but there was no statistical significance (P>0.05). The standardized prevalence of the population over 50 years of age showed an increasing trend and the increase was further widened with age, with the highest rise in the ≥80 years age group (EAPC=4.46%, t=89.92, P<0.001). The age-stratified trend of COPD prevalence showed significant differentiation: a significant decline in prevalence was observed in the 25-34 year olds (25-29 year olds: EAPC=-1.52%, P<0.001; 30-34 year olds: EAPC=-0.57%, P=0.045), while the prevalence of the 35-39 year olds group showed a statistically insignificant change (EAPC=-0.40%, P=0.187), whereas the 40-44 year old group showed a turnaround increase (EAPC=0.60%, P=0.047), and the 50+ year old group showed a rapid increasing trend (EAPC>2.00%, P<0.001). COPD mortality showed a significant increasing trend in the ≥80 years age group (EAPC=0.95%, P<0.001); COPD mortality continued to decrease in the under 80 years age group (all EAPC<-0.50%, P<0.001). The results of ARIMA model showed that the incidence and prevalence of COPD in China from 2022 to 2032 showed an upward trend, and the overall mortality rate declined, but the male mortality rate showed an upward trend, and the female mortality rate fluctuated but generally declined.The incidence rate of COPD in 2032 was estimated to be up to 409.39/100 000, and the prevalence rate was estimated to be up to 4 675.48/100 000. In 2032, the overall mortality rate was projected to reach 71.39/100 000, with the male mortality rate expected to reach 112.10/100 000, and the female mortality rate expected to reach 77.32/100 000.
Conclusion From 1990 to 2021, the standardized incidence and prevalence of COPD in the whole population, male and female populations in China showed an overall increasing trend. In the elderly population, the standardized incidence and prevalence of COPD showed a growing trend, and the mortality rate of the population aged 80 years or older showed an increasing trend, whereas the mortality rate of COPD for people under 80 years of age showed a decreasing trend. Incidence and prevalence of COPD in China from 2022 to 2032 showed an increasing trend, and the overall mortality rate was decreasing, but the mortality rate of males showed an increasing trend, and the mortality rate of females fluctuates.