Trend Analysis of the Changing Disease Burden of Pancreatitis in China and Worldwide from 1990 to 2021 and Prediction for 2022 to 2031

doi:10.12114/j.issn.1007-9572.2025.0025

Abstract

Abstract:

Background

Pancreatitis is a common disease of the digestive system, seriously affecting the quality of life of patients and imposing a public medical burden on families and society.

Objective

To analyse the trend of change in the burden of pancreatitis in China from 1990 to 2021, compare it with the global burden of disease, and predict the burden of pancreatitis in China from 2022 to 2031, so as to provide a reference basis for the prevention and treatment of pancreatitis in China.

Methods

Utilizing open data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database (1990-2021), we analyzed the characteristics of pancreatitis burden in China and worldwide. Temporal trends in pancreatitis burden were calculated using the Joinpoint regression model, and the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) was extended to predict the disease burden of pancreatitis from 2022 to 2031.

Results

In China, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) decreased from 35.352 per 100 000 in 1990 to 23.529 per 100 000 in 2021, the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) declined from 35.326 per 100 000 to 24.146 per 100 000, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) dropped from 0.983 per 100 000 to 0.637 per 100 000, and the age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) fell from 29.770 per 100 000 to 18.267 per 100 000. Globally, ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR also exhibited declining trends, but with smaller magnitudes of decline. The average annual percentage changes (AAPC) for China's ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR were -1.340, -1.246, -1.400, and -1.574, respectively, which significantly outperformed the global declining trends (-0.441, -0.990, -0.468, and -0.527). Over the next decade, the ASPR of pancreatitis in China is projected to decrease from 24.08 per 100 000 in 2022 to 21.21 per 100 000 in 2031, ASMR are expected to decline from 0.64 per 100 000 to 0.53 per 100 000, and ASDR are predicted to drop from 17.98 per 100 000 to 14.63 per 100 000.

Conclusion

Analysis of data from 1990 to 2021 indicates that the disease burden of pancreatitis has shown a declining trend both in China and globally. In China, the ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR have all demonstrated decreasing trends. The corresponding AAPC were significantly more favorable than the global levels. Projections based on the ARIMA model suggest that the ASIR in China will remain stable over the next decade, while the ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR associated with pancreatitis are predicted to decline.

Key words: Pancreatitis, Burden of disease, Incidence, Prevalence, Mortality, Disability-adjusted life years

摘要：

背景

胰腺炎是消化系统的常见疾病，严重影响患者生活质量，加重社会的公共医疗负担。

目的

分析1990—2021年中国胰腺炎疾病负担变化趋势，将其与全球疾病负担进行比较，并对中国2022—2031年的胰腺炎负担进行预测，为我国胰腺炎的防治提供参考依据。

方法

利用1990—2021年全球疾病负担（GBD）数据库中的开放数据，分析中国和世界范围内胰腺炎负担的特征，使用Joinpoint回归模型计算胰腺炎负担的时间变化趋势，并扩展自回归差分移动平均模型（ARIMA），以预测2022—2031年胰腺炎的疾病负担。

结果

中国胰腺炎的年龄标化发病率（ASIR）从1990年的35.352/10万下降至2021年的23.529/10万，年龄标化患病率（ASPR）从1990年的35.326/10万下降至2021年的24.146/10万，年龄标化死亡率（ASMR）从1990年的0.983/10万下降至2021年的0.637/10万，年龄标化伤残调整寿命年率（ASDR）从1990年的29.77/10万下降至2021年的18.267/10万。全球范围内，胰腺炎ASIR、ASPR、ASMR和ASDR也呈下降趋势，但变化幅度较小。中国胰腺炎ASIR、ASPR、ASMR、ASDR的年均变化百分比（AAPC）分别为-1.340、-1.246、-1.400和-1.574，优于全球的下降趋势（-0.441、-0.990、-0.468、-0.527）。2022—2031年，中国胰腺炎ASPR将由2022年24.08/10万减少到2031年的21.21/10万，ASMR从0.64/10万减少至0.53/10万，ASDR从17.98/10万减少至14.63/10万。

结论

根据1990—2021年GBD数据分析结果，中国和全球胰腺炎的疾病负担均呈下降趋势。中国胰腺炎ASIR、ASPR、ASMR和ASDR均呈现下降趋势，AAPC均优于全球水平。根据ARIMA模型，2022—2031年中国胰腺炎的ASIR将保持平稳，ASPR、ASMR、ASDR的预测均有下降趋势。

关键词: 胰腺炎, 疾病负担, 发病率, 患病率, 死亡率, 伤残调整寿命年

LUO Xinyu,LIU Jin,CHEN Hailong. Trend Analysis of the Changing Disease Burden of Pancreatitis in China and Worldwide from 1990 to 2021 and Prediction for 2022 to 2031[J]. Chinese General Practice, 2025, 28(26): 3321-3327. DOI: 10.12114/j.issn.1007-9572.2025.0025.
罗新宇,刘瑾,陈海龙. 1990—2021年中国和全球胰腺炎疾病负担趋势分析及2022—2031年预测研究[J]. 中国全科医学, 2025, 28(26): 3321-3327. DOI: 10.12114/j.issn.1007-9572.2025.0025.

Figures/Tables 5

Table 1 The ASIR，ASPR，ASMR，and ASDR of pancreatitis in China and globally in 1990 and 2021

地区	指标	1990年	2021年
中国	ASIR	35.352（29.770~41.416）	23.529（20.204~27.314）
	ASPR	35.326（23.777~50.992）	24.146（17.334~33.289）
	ASMR	0.983（0.772~1.243）	0.637（0.487~0.813）
	ASDR	29.770（23.873~36.358）	18.267（14.348~23.423）
全球	ASIR	37.618（32.567~43.463）	32.806（28.853~37.377）
	ASPR	93.743（68.311~127.077）	68.992（51.258~91.293）
	ASMR	1.690（1.496~1.916）	1.452（1.303~1.674）
	ASDR	57.393（50.340~66.067）	48.425（43.071~55.347）

Figure 1 The APC of ASIR，ASPR，ASMR and ASDR of pancreatitis in China from 1990 to 2021

Figure 2 The APC of ASIR，ASPR，ASMR and ASDR of pancreatitis in global from 1990 to 2021

Figure 3 Comparison of trends in ASIR，ASPR，ASMR and ASDR of pancreatitis in China and globally from 1990 to 2021

Figure 4 The predicted trends of the incidence，prevalence，mortality and DALYs of pancreatitis in China from 2022 to 2031

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