Diabetes is highly prevalent in China, the prevention and treatment of it and its related complications need a lot of medical resources. Local reports have revealed that although the mortality of diabetes is declining, the burden of diabetes is still increasing.

To understand the epidemiological characteristics and burden of diabetes in China from 1990—2019, forecast the incidence of diabetes in China from 2020 to 2030, to provide data for evaluating and formulating diabetes-related prevention and treatment policies and measures.

In August 2022, this study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Temporal trends of the incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALY), years of life lost (YLL), and years lost due to a disability (YLD) of diabetes in China from 1990 to 2019 were described. The Bayesian-age-period-cohort analysis was used to predict the incidence of diabetes in China from 2020 to 2030.

Compared with 1990, in 2019, the crude prevalence of diabetes increased to 265.45/100 000, with an increase of 63.12%, the standardized prevalence of diabetes increased to 204.31/100 000, with an increase of 15.93%, the crude mortality rate of diabetes increased to 12.16/100 000, with an increase of 105.41%, and the standardized mortality rate of diabetes increased to 9.44/100 000, with an increase of 2.61%. The YLL rate decreased from 204.71/100 000 in 1990 to 178.45/100 000 in 2019. The YLD rate increased from 260.74/100 000 in 1990 to 316.30/100 000 in 2019. The DALY rate increased from 465.46/100 000 in 1990 to 494.76/100 000 in 2019. Compared with 1990, the DALY rate of diabetes increased by 21.08% in males and decreased by 6.68% in females. The YLL rate, YLD rate and DALY rate increased with age in 2019. According to the prediction of the standardized incidence of diabetes in China from 2020 to 2030, the overall standardized incidence of diabetes would present a decreasing trend during the period, and the standardized incidence of diabetes in 2030 would decrease by 11.45% in men and 18.60% in women compared with 2020.

The burden of diabetes in China is still heavy, with a large number of illness cases and decreased cases, mainly manifested by a high burden caused by diabetes-related disability. Attention should be paid to early prevention of diabetes to reduce the occurrence of complications. The disease burden of males and middle-aged and elderly people is heavy, so sufficient attention should be paid to them. Although the predicted diabetes incidence will reduce between 2020 and 2030, the number of patients is still increasing, so the prevention and control of diabetes should not be slack.

中国糖尿病患病形势严峻，糖尿病及其并发症的防治须耗费大量医疗资源。针对局部地区的研究结果显示，虽然糖尿病的死亡率呈下降趋势，但疾病负担仍在加重。

了解1990—2019年中国糖尿病流行特征和疾病负担，预测2020—2030年中国糖尿病发病情况，为评价和制定糖尿病相关防治政策和措施提供数据借鉴。

于2022年8月，利用2019年全球疾病负担研究（GBD 2019）数据，描述1990—2019年中国糖尿病的发病、死亡、伤残调整寿命年（DALY）、早死寿命损失年（YLL）、伤残寿命损失年（YLD）变化趋势。采用贝叶斯-时期-队列分析（BAPC）方法，预测2020—2030年中国糖尿病的发病率。

2019年中国糖尿病粗发病率为265.45/10万，标化发病率为204.31/10万，相对于1990年分别增长63.12%、15.93%；粗死亡率为12.16/10万，标化死亡率为9.44/10万，相对于1990年分别增长105.41%、2.61%。1990—2019年中国人群因糖尿病导致的YLL率由204.71/10万降至178.45/10万，YLD率由260.74/10万增至316.30/10万，DALY率由465.46/10万增至494.76/10万。2019年男性糖尿病DALY率相比于1990年增长21.08%，女性DALY率相比于1990年降低6.68%；2019年YLL率、YLD率、DALY率总体随着年龄的增长而上升。2020—2030年中国糖尿病标化发病率预计呈下降趋势，2030年男性标化发病率预计比2020年降低11.45%，女性标化发病率预计比2020年降低18.60%。

中国糖尿病疾病负担仍然较重，发病及死亡人数较多，疾病负担表现为由伤残导致的疾病负担较高，应关注糖尿病的早期预防，减少并发症的发生。男性、中老年人群疾病负担较重，应对该人群给予足够重视。虽然预测结果显示中国糖尿病发病率在下降，但是患病人数仍在增加，因此不可放松防控工作。