Abstract: Background　In the 21st century，the incidence rate and mortality rate of malignant tumors are rising constantly，which imposes both mental and economic burdens on society and individuals.Therefore，the prevention and control of cancer are very important.Objective　To perform a descriptive analysis of cancer death in Yingkou's urban residents from 2013 to 2018，offering a theoretical basis for the prevention and treatment of cancer in this city.Methods　A retrospective design was used.From the mortality information system of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention，death data of Yingkou's urban residents from January 1，2013 to December 31，2018 were obtained，among which cancer death data were extracted by using the ICD-10 code set.Crude mortality，standardized mortality，annual percentage of change （APC），potential years of life lost （PYLL），potential years of life lost rate （PYLLR） and average years of life lost （AYLL） were calculated.Excel 2007，DeathReg 2005，SPSS 17.0，Joinpoint 4.7.0.0 were used to analyze the cancer death and cancer-related loss of life years.A GM grey model was established to predict the cancer mortality in the 2019—2021.Results　From 2013 to 2018，a total of 5 638 people died of cancer in Yingkou，with an average annual crude mortality rate of 210.89/100 000 and a standardized mortality rate of 162.47/100 000.The average annual crude mortality rate for men was 263.78/100 000，and the standardized mortality rate was 209.76/100 000；the average annual crude mortality rate for women was 159.71/100 000，and the standardized mortality rate was 120.23/100 000.The cancer mortality showed a significant upward trend in 16-50 years old （APC=16.42%，P<0.01），and the upward trend of mortality slowed down in over 50 years old （APC=8.03%，P<0.01）.The six leading causes of cancer death were lung cancer，liver cancer，colorectal and anal cancer，gastric cancer，esophageal cancer and breast cancer.During this period，the mortality of colorectal and anal cancer showed an upward trend（APC=8.27%，P<0.01）.PYLL and AYLL caused mainly by cancer were 21 948 person-years，and 10.79 years，respectively.The PYLL caused by lung cancer was the largest （8 327 person-years）.And breast cancer （1 773 person-years） had the second largest impact on women's life expectancy after lung cancer （2 533 person-years）.GM grey model predicted that the cancer mortality in Yingkou was 223.86/100 000 in 2019，227.63/100 000 in 2020 and 231.46/100 000 in 2021.Conclusion　Among Yingkou's urban residents，cancer ranked the second leading cause of death.Men had higher mortality of major cancers than women except breast cancer.Liver cancer and breast cancer tended to be more prevalent in young people.It is predicted that the cancer mortality in Yingkou from 2019 to 2021 would be higher，with an increasing trend.Since cancer has become a serious threat to the health of urban residents in the city，relevant intervention and management should be strengthened.

Key words: Malignant tumor, Mortality, Cause of death in sequence, Model prediction, Lung neoplasms, Breast neoplasms

摘要： 背景　进入21世纪，恶性肿瘤发病率和死亡率不断攀升，给社会及个人带来精神和经济双重负担。因此，做好恶性肿瘤的防控工作至关重要。目的　对2013—2018年营口市城市户籍居民恶性肿瘤死亡情况进行分析描述，为营口市恶性肿瘤防治工作提供理论依据。方法　采用回顾性研究方法，居民死亡资料来源于中国疾病预防控制中心信息系统中的人口死亡信息系统，从系统中导出2013-01-01至2018-12-31营口市城市户籍居民全部死亡数据，并根据国际疾病分类（ICD-10）进行死因分类，整理出全部恶性肿瘤死亡数据。计算粗死亡率、标化死亡率、年度变化百分比（APC）、潜在减寿年数（PYLL）、潜在减寿率（PYLLR）和平均减寿年数（AYLL）等指标。采用Excel 2007、DeathReg 2005、SPSS 17.0、Joinpoint 4.7.0.0分析营口市城市户籍居民恶性肿瘤死亡情况和造成的寿命损失，并建立GM灰色预测模型预测营口市2019—2021年恶性肿瘤粗死亡率。结果　2013—2018年营口市城市户籍居民因恶性肿瘤死亡人数共计5 638例，年均粗死亡率为210.89/10万，标化死亡率为162.47/10万。其中男性年均粗死亡率为263.78/10万，标化死亡率为209.76/10万；女性年均粗死亡率为159.71/10万，标化死亡率为120.23/10万。16~50岁粗死亡率出现明显上升趋势（APC=16.42%，P<0.01），50岁之后粗死亡率上升趋势有所减慢（APC=8.03%，P<0.01）。居民恶性肿瘤死因顺位前6位依次为肺癌、肝癌、结直肠和肛门癌、胃癌、食管癌和乳腺癌。2013—2018年，结直肠和肛门癌粗死亡率呈现上升趋势（APC=8.27%，P<0.01）。居民因主要恶性肿瘤死亡造成的PYLL和AYLL分别为21 948人年和10.79年。肺癌造成的PYLL最大（8 327人年），乳腺癌（1 773人年）对于女性寿命的影响仅次于肺癌（2 533人年）。GM灰色预测模型预测2019年营口市城市户籍居民恶性肿瘤的粗死亡率为223.86/10万，2020年为227.63/10万，2021年为231.46/10万。结论　营口市城市户籍居民恶性肿瘤位列死因顺位的第2位。除女性乳腺癌外，其他主要恶性肿瘤的粗死亡率男性均高于女性。肝癌和乳腺癌呈现年轻化趋势。预测2019—2021年营口市城市居民恶性肿瘤粗死亡率呈上升趋势且高于往年。可见，恶性肿瘤已成为严重威胁营口市城市居民健康的主要原因，应加强相关干预和管理。

关键词: 恶性肿瘤, 死亡率, 死因顺位, 模型预测, 肺肿瘤, 乳腺肿瘤