Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a public health problem that cannot be ignored in China and even in the world. At present, relevant studies on the prediction of the incidence trends of different subtypes of chronic kidney disease are rare in China.

To predict the incidence trend of five subtypes of CKD in China from 2020 to 2040, and provide reference for the prevention and control of CKD.

The age standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and cases of five subtypes of CKD in China from 1990 to 2019 were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) database (April 2023 to May 2023). The incidence trend of five subtypes of CKD was described and analyzed by the percentage change (%) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC). The Prophet model was used to predict the ASIR and cases of five subtypes of CKD in China from 2020 to 2040.

From 1990 to 2019, The ASIR and cases of five subtypes of CKD in China showed an upward trend. The upward trend of CKD due to hypertension is the most obvious (AAPC=0.75, P<0.05). In 2019, the ASIR and cases of CKD due to diabetes mellitus type 2, diabetes mellitus type 1, glomerulonephritis and hypertension in male were higher than female, while the ASIR and cases of CKD due to other causes in female were higher than male. The cases of CKD due to diabetes mellitus type 2, hypertension and other causes is the highest in the age group of 65-74 years old. The cases of CKD due to diabetes mellitus type 1 and glomerulonephritis were mostly concentrated in the age group under 5 years old. The prediction results showed that in 2040, the ASIR and cases of CKD due to diabetes mellitus type 2 are 23.27/10⁵ (80%UI=20.64/10⁵-26.08/10⁵) and 755 375 (80%UI=702 827-811 409) respectively, the ASIR and cases of CKD due to diabetes mellitus type 1 are 0.60/10⁵ (80%UI=0.47/10⁵-0.73/10⁵) and 10 625 (80%UI=9 519-11 787) respectively, the ASIR and cases of CKD due to glomerulonephritis were 3.88/10⁵ (80%UI=3.01/10⁵-4.79/10⁵) and 87 050 (80%UI=74 470-100 460) respectively, the ASIR and cases of CKD due to hypertension were 15.35/10⁵ (80%UI=13.53/10⁵-17.29/10⁵) and 470 214 (80%UI=437 598-504 817) respectively, and the ASIR and the CKD due to other causes were 127.68/10⁵ (80%UI=102.41/10⁵-154.68/10⁵) and 3 901 317 (80%UI=3 622 415-4 198 720) respectively.

From 1990 to 2019, The ASIR and cases of five subtypes of CKD in China showed an upward trend. From 2020 to 2040, The ASIR and cases of CKD due to diabetes mellitus type 2, hypertension and other causes in China will still show an upward trend. Though cases of CKD due to diabetes mellitus type 1 and glomerulonephritis will increase year by year, the collective ASIR will show a downward trend. In the future, relevant prevention and control strategies should be developed for different subtypes of CKD.

慢性肾脏病（CKD）是我国乃至全球不可忽视的公共卫生问题。目前，国内关于不同亚型CKD发病趋势预测的相关研究鲜见报道。

预测2020—2040年中国5种亚型CKD的发病趋势，为CKD的防控提供参考。

2023年4—5月，收集全球疾病负担研究（GBD）数据库1990—2019年我国5种亚型CKD的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）和发病人数。采用变化率（%）和平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）描述和分析我国5种亚型CKD的发病现状。运用Prophet模型预测我国2020—2040年5种亚型CKD的ASIR和发病人数。

1990—2019年我国5种亚型CKD的ASIR和发病人数均呈现上升趋势，其中高血压肾病的上升趋势最为明显（AAPC=0.75，P<0.05）。2019年男性2型糖尿病肾病、1型糖尿病肾病、肾小球肾炎肾病和高血压肾病的ASIR和发病人数均高于女性，而女性其他类型肾病的ASIR和发病人数高于男性。2型糖尿病肾病、高血压肾病和其他类型肾病在65~74岁年龄组的发病人数较高。1型糖尿病肾病和肾小球肾炎肾病的发病人数多集中于<5岁年龄组。本研究预测结果表明，预计到2040年，2型糖尿病肾病的ASIR和发病人数分别为23.27/10⁵（80%UI=20.64/10⁵~26.08/10⁵）和755 375（80%UI=702 827~811 409）例，1型糖尿病肾病的ASIR和发病人数分别为0.60/10⁵（80%UI=0.47/10⁵~0.73/10⁵）和10 625（80%UI=9 519~11 787）例，肾小球肾炎肾病的ASIR和发病人数分别为3.88/10⁵（80%UI=3.01/10⁵~4.79/10⁵）和87 050（80%UI=74 470~100 460）例，高血压肾病的ASIR和发病人数分别为15.35/10⁵（80%UI=13.53/10⁵~17.29/10⁵）和470 214（80%UI=437 598~504 817）例，其他类型肾病的ASIR和发病人数分别为127.68/10⁵（80%UI=102.41/10⁵~154.68/10⁵）和3 901 317（80%UI=3 622 415~4 198 720）例。

1990—2019年我国5种亚型CKD的ASIR和发病人数均呈现上升趋势。2020—2040年中国2型糖尿病肾病、高血压肾病和其他类型肾病的ASIR和发病人数仍然呈现上升趋势，虽然1型糖尿病肾病和肾小球肾炎肾病的发病人数逐年增长，但总体的ASIR呈现下降趋势。未来应针对不同亚型的CKD制定相应的防控策略。