Abstract: Background With the gradual deepening of the comprehensive reform of community health services，the prevention and control of single diseases for the entire population in the community is also constantly being optimized，However，there is still a lack of appropriate evaluation methods in the community to reflect its prevention and control effectiveness evaluation. Objective By analyzing and exploring the cost effect of the existing whole-population prevention and control measures of osteoporosis in Fenglin community，from2016 to 2022，this paper answers the initial results and possible problems of the whole population prevention and control of single disease in the community. Methods This study conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis on 4293 community residents who received osteoporosis prevention and treatment in Fenglin Community from 2016 to 2022. Divide the research object into three states based on bone density values: healthy，low bone mass，and osteoporosis，and construct a Markov model to analyze the influencing factors of different state transitions. And based on the predicted values of the Markov model combined with quality adjusted life years （QALY），the increment of quality adjusted life years（QALY） is calculated. All costs invested in prevention and control work from 2016 to 2022 are counted，and the effectiveness of prevention and control is evaluated by the cost/quality adjusted life year increment ratio. Quality adjusted life years （QALY）are obtained by calculating the health utility value and expected life determined through literature search. Results The total cost of osteoporosis prevention and treatment in Fenglin community was 33，814，102.15 yuan. The total quality-adjusted life years of 4293 community osteoporosis prevention and treatment population were 77098.2889 at the first diagnosis，the average per capita was 17.959，and the standard deviation was 9.34. At the second diagnosis，the total quality-adjusted life years were 79616.9361，the mean per capita was 18.546，the standard deviation was 9.342，and the difference between the two diagnoses was 2，518.6472. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio （ICER） is 2，132.9070 yuan /QALY，and the incremental costeffectiveness ratio （ICER） is less than 1 times （66，965.10 yuan） per capita GDP，indicating that the intervention scheme is fully cost-effective. Conclusion This study combined Markov model and quality-adjusted life years （QALY） to make a preliminary evaluation of the prevention and treatment effect of osteoporosis in Fenglin community. The results showed that the intervention program of osteoporosis prevention and treatment in Fenglin community was worth investing， and provided a certain basis for the accurate prevention and treatment decision of osteoporosis in the future.

Key words: Osteoporosis, Community single disease, Prevention and cure, Cost-effectiveness analysis, Markov model

摘要： 背景 随着社区卫生服务综合改革的逐步深化，社区对全人群的单病种防治工作也在不断优化，但目前仍缺乏合适的方法来评价社区防治的成效。目的 通过分析2016—2022年度上海市徐汇区枫林街道社区卫生服务中心现有骨质疏松全人群防治措施的成本效果，探究社区单病种全人群防治的初步成效及可能存在的问题。方法 本研究以4293例枫林社区2016-2022年度接受骨质疏松防治的社区居民为研究对象进行成本-效果分析。根据骨密度值将研究对象划分为三种状态：健康、低骨量、骨质疏松，以此构建Markov模型，分析不同状态转移的影响因素，并依据Markov模型预测值结合质量调整生命年（QALY）计算QALY增量，统计2016—2022年防治工作投入的所有成本，以成本/QALY增量比来评价防治效果，通过文献检索确定的健康效用值和期望寿命计算求得QALY。结果 枫林社区骨质疏松防治总成本为33814102.15元。第一次诊断时社区骨质疏松防治人群的总QALY为77098.2889，人均均值为17.959，标准差为9.34；第二次诊断时防治人群的总QALY为79616.9361，人均均值为18.546，标准差为9.342，两次诊断QALY的差值为2518.6472。增量成本效果比（ICER）为2132.9070元/QALY，ICER值小于1倍（66965.10元）人均GDP，表明干预方案完全具有成本效果。结论 本研究结合Markov模型及质量调整生命年（QALY）对枫林持续接受骨质疏松随访管理的人群的防治效果进行了初步评价，结果显示枫林社区的骨质疏松防治干预方案是值得投入的，为后续骨质疏松的精准防治决策提供了一定的依据。

关键词: 骨质疏松, 社区单病种, 防治, 成本效果分析, 马尔科夫模型