Chinese General Practice ›› 2024, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (15): 1878-1885.DOI: 10.12114/j.issn.1007-9572.2023.0406
• Original Research • Previous Articles Next Articles
Received:
2023-04-13
Revised:
2023-08-27
Published:
2024-05-20
Online:
2024-02-28
Contact:
YANG Xiaokun
通讯作者:
杨晓琨
作者简介:
基金资助:
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URL: https://www.chinagp.net/EN/10.12114/j.issn.1007-9572.2023.0406
组别 | 例数 | 性别(男/女) | 年龄 | 吸烟史 | ASCVD家族史 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65~69岁 | 70~74岁 | 75~79岁 | ≥80岁 | 有 | 无 | 有 | 无 | ||||
训练集 | 1 127 | 503/624 | 465(41.26) | 321(28.48) | 188(16.68) | 153(13.58) | 635(56.34) | 492(43.66) | 320(28.39) | 807(71.61) | |
验证集 | 291 | 138/153 | 129(44.33) | 65(22.34) | 56(19.24) | 41(14.09) | 166(57.05) | 125(42.96) | 89(30.58) | 202(69.42) | |
χ2值 | 0.73 | 4.66 | 0.05 | 0.54 | |||||||
P值 | 0.394 | 0.199 | 0.830 | 0.462 | |||||||
组别 | 糖尿病史 | 收缩压 | 高血压用药史 | 腰围 | |||||||
有 | 无 | <140 mmHg | ≥140 mmHg | 有 | 无 | 正常水平(男性<85 cm/女性<80 cm) | 升高(男性≥85 cm/女性≥80 cm) | ||||
训练集 | 344(30.52) | 783(69.48) | 737(65.39) | 390(34.61) | 633(56.17) | 494(43.83) | 251(22.27) | 876(77.73) | |||
验证集 | 84(28.87) | 207(71.13) | 188(64.61) | 103(35.39) | 167(57.39) | 124(42.61) | 65(22.34) | 226(77.66) | |||
χ2值 | 0.30 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.00 | |||||||
P值 | 0.583 | 0.801 | 0.708 | 0.981 | |||||||
组别 | BMI | TC | TG | ||||||||
低体质量(<18.5 kg/m2) | 正常体质量(18.5~23.9 kg/m2) | 超重(24.0~27.9 kg/m2) | 肥胖(≥28.0 kg/m2) | 合适水平(<5.2 mmol/L) | 边缘升高(5.2~<6.2 mmol/L) | 升高(≥6.2 mmol/L) | 合适水平(<1.7 mmol/L) | 边缘升高(1.7~<2.3 mmol/L) | 升高(≥2.3 mmol/L) | ||
训练集 | 377(33.45) | 443(39.31) | 297(26.35) | 10(0.89) | 589(52.26) | 391(34.69) | 147(13.04) | 756(67.08) | 206(18.28) | 165(14.64) | |
验证集 | 89(30.58) | 132(45.36) | 66(22.68) | 4(1.38) | 146(50.17) | 113(38.83) | 32(11.00) | 191(65.64) | 55(18.90) | 45(15.46) | |
χ2值 | 4.44 | 2.08 | 0.23 | ||||||||
P值 | 0.217 | 0.354 | 0.893 | ||||||||
组别 | 体质类型 | ASCVD事件 | |||||||||
平和质 | 气虚质 | 气郁质 | 湿热质 | 特禀质 | 痰湿质 | 血瘀质 | 阳虚质 | 阴虚质 | 有 | 无 | |
训练集 | 258(22.89) | 26(2.31) | 106(9.41) | 45(3.99) | 10(0.89) | 249(22.09) | 109(9.67) | 171(15.17) | 153(13.58) | 178(15.79) | 949(84.21) |
验证集 | 61(20.96) | 7(2.41) | 30(10.31) | 9(3.09) | 4(1.38) | 62(21.31) | 20(6.87) | 56(19.24) | 42(14.43) | 48(16.50) | 243(83.50) |
χ2值 | 6.21 | 0.09 | |||||||||
P值 | 0.623 | 0.771 |
Table 1 Comparison of general conditions between training set and validation set
组别 | 例数 | 性别(男/女) | 年龄 | 吸烟史 | ASCVD家族史 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65~69岁 | 70~74岁 | 75~79岁 | ≥80岁 | 有 | 无 | 有 | 无 | ||||
训练集 | 1 127 | 503/624 | 465(41.26) | 321(28.48) | 188(16.68) | 153(13.58) | 635(56.34) | 492(43.66) | 320(28.39) | 807(71.61) | |
验证集 | 291 | 138/153 | 129(44.33) | 65(22.34) | 56(19.24) | 41(14.09) | 166(57.05) | 125(42.96) | 89(30.58) | 202(69.42) | |
χ2值 | 0.73 | 4.66 | 0.05 | 0.54 | |||||||
P值 | 0.394 | 0.199 | 0.830 | 0.462 | |||||||
组别 | 糖尿病史 | 收缩压 | 高血压用药史 | 腰围 | |||||||
有 | 无 | <140 mmHg | ≥140 mmHg | 有 | 无 | 正常水平(男性<85 cm/女性<80 cm) | 升高(男性≥85 cm/女性≥80 cm) | ||||
训练集 | 344(30.52) | 783(69.48) | 737(65.39) | 390(34.61) | 633(56.17) | 494(43.83) | 251(22.27) | 876(77.73) | |||
验证集 | 84(28.87) | 207(71.13) | 188(64.61) | 103(35.39) | 167(57.39) | 124(42.61) | 65(22.34) | 226(77.66) | |||
χ2值 | 0.30 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.00 | |||||||
P值 | 0.583 | 0.801 | 0.708 | 0.981 | |||||||
组别 | BMI | TC | TG | ||||||||
低体质量(<18.5 kg/m2) | 正常体质量(18.5~23.9 kg/m2) | 超重(24.0~27.9 kg/m2) | 肥胖(≥28.0 kg/m2) | 合适水平(<5.2 mmol/L) | 边缘升高(5.2~<6.2 mmol/L) | 升高(≥6.2 mmol/L) | 合适水平(<1.7 mmol/L) | 边缘升高(1.7~<2.3 mmol/L) | 升高(≥2.3 mmol/L) | ||
训练集 | 377(33.45) | 443(39.31) | 297(26.35) | 10(0.89) | 589(52.26) | 391(34.69) | 147(13.04) | 756(67.08) | 206(18.28) | 165(14.64) | |
验证集 | 89(30.58) | 132(45.36) | 66(22.68) | 4(1.38) | 146(50.17) | 113(38.83) | 32(11.00) | 191(65.64) | 55(18.90) | 45(15.46) | |
χ2值 | 4.44 | 2.08 | 0.23 | ||||||||
P值 | 0.217 | 0.354 | 0.893 | ||||||||
组别 | 体质类型 | ASCVD事件 | |||||||||
平和质 | 气虚质 | 气郁质 | 湿热质 | 特禀质 | 痰湿质 | 血瘀质 | 阳虚质 | 阴虚质 | 有 | 无 | |
训练集 | 258(22.89) | 26(2.31) | 106(9.41) | 45(3.99) | 10(0.89) | 249(22.09) | 109(9.67) | 171(15.17) | 153(13.58) | 178(15.79) | 949(84.21) |
验证集 | 61(20.96) | 7(2.41) | 30(10.31) | 9(3.09) | 4(1.38) | 62(21.31) | 20(6.87) | 56(19.24) | 42(14.43) | 48(16.50) | 243(83.50) |
χ2值 | 6.21 | 0.09 | |||||||||
P值 | 0.623 | 0.771 |
变量 | β | SE | Wald χ2值 | OR(95%CI) | P值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
性别(以女为参照) | |||||
男 | 0.744 | 0.167 | 19.942 | 2.105(1.522~2.926) | <0.001 |
年龄(以65~69岁为参照) | |||||
70~74岁 | 0.471 | 0.219 | 4.652 | 1.602(1.043~2.463) | 0.031 |
75~79岁 | 1.250 | 0.223 | 31.302 | 3.492(2.255~5.426) | <0.001 |
≥80岁 | 0.732 | 0.257 | 8.100 | 2.080(1.246~3.427) | 0.004 |
BMI(以未超重为参照a) | |||||
超重 | 0.397 | 0.206 | 3.722 | 1.488(0.998~2.241) | 0.054 |
肥胖 | 0.741 | 0.214 | 12.003 | 2.099(1.384~3.208) | 0.001 |
糖尿病史 | 0.114 | 0.175 | 0.423 | 1.120(0.791~1.572) | 0.515 |
ASCVD家族史 | 0.507 | 0.171 | 8.770 | 1.661(1.183~2.317) | 0.003 |
高血压用药史 | 0.165 | 0.166 | 0.982 | 1.179(0.853~1.637) | 0.322 |
收缩压×高血压用药史 | 1.560 | 0.190 | 67.667 | 4.757(3.275~6.893) | <0.001 |
收缩压升高 | 1.069 | 0.167 | 41.150 | 2.913(2.104~4.048) | <0.001 |
吸烟史 | 0.074 | 0.165 | 0.199 | 1.076(0.780~1.492) | 0.656 |
TC(以参考范围为参照) | |||||
边缘升高 | 0.391 | 0.186 | 4.408 | 1.478(1.025~2.130) | 0.036 |
升高 | 1.120 | 0.222 | 25.566 | 3.066(1.977~4.721) | <0.001 |
TG(以参考范围为参照) | |||||
边缘升高 | 0.464 | 0.197 | 5.544 | 1.590(1.073~2.327) | 0.019 |
升高 | -0.242 | 0.259 | 0.872 | 0.785(0.460~1.279) | 0.350 |
腰围升高 | 1.538 | 0.308 | 24.922 | 4.657(2.654~8.975) | <0.001 |
体质类型(以平和质为参照) | |||||
阳虚质 | 0.223 | 0.312 | 0.510 | 1.249(0.673~2.297) | 0.475 |
阴虚质 | 1.046 | 0.280 | 13.951 | 2.846(1.651~4.971) | <0.001 |
痰湿质 | 1.041 | 0.254 | 16.749 | 2.833(1.738~4.729) | <0.001 |
血瘀质 | 0.814 | 0.316 | 6.641 | 2.256(1.208~4.190) | 0.010 |
气郁质 | -1.050 | 0.550 | 3.644 | 0.350(0.101~0.927) | 0.056 |
其他b | -0.022 | 0.426 | 0.003 | 0.978(0.399~2.166) | 0.958 |
Table 2 Univariate Logistic regression analysis of ASCVD events
变量 | β | SE | Wald χ2值 | OR(95%CI) | P值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
性别(以女为参照) | |||||
男 | 0.744 | 0.167 | 19.942 | 2.105(1.522~2.926) | <0.001 |
年龄(以65~69岁为参照) | |||||
70~74岁 | 0.471 | 0.219 | 4.652 | 1.602(1.043~2.463) | 0.031 |
75~79岁 | 1.250 | 0.223 | 31.302 | 3.492(2.255~5.426) | <0.001 |
≥80岁 | 0.732 | 0.257 | 8.100 | 2.080(1.246~3.427) | 0.004 |
BMI(以未超重为参照a) | |||||
超重 | 0.397 | 0.206 | 3.722 | 1.488(0.998~2.241) | 0.054 |
肥胖 | 0.741 | 0.214 | 12.003 | 2.099(1.384~3.208) | 0.001 |
糖尿病史 | 0.114 | 0.175 | 0.423 | 1.120(0.791~1.572) | 0.515 |
ASCVD家族史 | 0.507 | 0.171 | 8.770 | 1.661(1.183~2.317) | 0.003 |
高血压用药史 | 0.165 | 0.166 | 0.982 | 1.179(0.853~1.637) | 0.322 |
收缩压×高血压用药史 | 1.560 | 0.190 | 67.667 | 4.757(3.275~6.893) | <0.001 |
收缩压升高 | 1.069 | 0.167 | 41.150 | 2.913(2.104~4.048) | <0.001 |
吸烟史 | 0.074 | 0.165 | 0.199 | 1.076(0.780~1.492) | 0.656 |
TC(以参考范围为参照) | |||||
边缘升高 | 0.391 | 0.186 | 4.408 | 1.478(1.025~2.130) | 0.036 |
升高 | 1.120 | 0.222 | 25.566 | 3.066(1.977~4.721) | <0.001 |
TG(以参考范围为参照) | |||||
边缘升高 | 0.464 | 0.197 | 5.544 | 1.590(1.073~2.327) | 0.019 |
升高 | -0.242 | 0.259 | 0.872 | 0.785(0.460~1.279) | 0.350 |
腰围升高 | 1.538 | 0.308 | 24.922 | 4.657(2.654~8.975) | <0.001 |
体质类型(以平和质为参照) | |||||
阳虚质 | 0.223 | 0.312 | 0.510 | 1.249(0.673~2.297) | 0.475 |
阴虚质 | 1.046 | 0.280 | 13.951 | 2.846(1.651~4.971) | <0.001 |
痰湿质 | 1.041 | 0.254 | 16.749 | 2.833(1.738~4.729) | <0.001 |
血瘀质 | 0.814 | 0.316 | 6.641 | 2.256(1.208~4.190) | 0.010 |
气郁质 | -1.050 | 0.550 | 3.644 | 0.350(0.101~0.927) | 0.056 |
其他b | -0.022 | 0.426 | 0.003 | 0.978(0.399~2.166) | 0.958 |
变量 | 模型1 | 模型2 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
OR(95%CI) | P值 | OR(95%CI) | P值 | |
性别(以女为参照) | ||||
男 | 3.368(2.298~4.936) | <0.001 | 3.145(2.114~4.677) | <0.001 |
年龄(以65~69岁为参照) | ||||
70~74岁 | 1.613(1.012~2.57) | 0.044 | 1.547(0.959~2.495) | 0.074 |
75~79岁 | 2.845(1.748~4.632) | <0.001 | 2.882(1.737~4.779) | <0.001 |
≥80岁 | 1.002(0.555~1.81) | 0.994 | 1.130(0.618~2.064) | 0.692 |
BMI(以未超重为参照a) | ||||
超重 | 0.902(0.559~1.454) | 0.671 | 0.902(0.552~1.475) | 0.682 |
肥胖 | 1.666(1.000~2.776) | 0.050 | 1.690(0.998~2.863) | 0.051 |
腰围升高 | 5.910(2.920~11.964) | <0.001 | 6.094(2.962~12.537) | <0.001 |
收缩压升高 | 2.337(1.468~3.723) | <0.001 | 2.291(1.423~3.689) | 0.001 |
TC(以参考范围为参照) | ||||
边缘升高 | 1.771(1.171~2.679) | 0.007 | 1.798(1.178~2.744) | 0.007 |
升高 | 3.959(2.385~6.572) | <0.001 | 3.609(2.144~6.074) | <0.001 |
收缩压×高血压用药史 | 3.269(1.915~5.579) | <0.001 | 3.505(2.021~6.078) | <0.001 |
体质类型(以平和质为参照) | ||||
阳虚质 | 1.200(0.607~2.373) | 0.601 | ||
阴虚质 | 2.679(1.438~4.993) | 0.002 | ||
痰湿质 | 3.067(1.750~5.374) | <0.001 | ||
血瘀质 | 2.530(1.276~5.014) | 0.008 | ||
气郁质 | 0.418(0.136~1.285) | 0.128 | ||
其他b | 1.010(0.408~2.500) | 0.982 |
Table 3 Multivariate Logistic regression analysis of ASCVD events
变量 | 模型1 | 模型2 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
OR(95%CI) | P值 | OR(95%CI) | P值 | |
性别(以女为参照) | ||||
男 | 3.368(2.298~4.936) | <0.001 | 3.145(2.114~4.677) | <0.001 |
年龄(以65~69岁为参照) | ||||
70~74岁 | 1.613(1.012~2.57) | 0.044 | 1.547(0.959~2.495) | 0.074 |
75~79岁 | 2.845(1.748~4.632) | <0.001 | 2.882(1.737~4.779) | <0.001 |
≥80岁 | 1.002(0.555~1.81) | 0.994 | 1.130(0.618~2.064) | 0.692 |
BMI(以未超重为参照a) | ||||
超重 | 0.902(0.559~1.454) | 0.671 | 0.902(0.552~1.475) | 0.682 |
肥胖 | 1.666(1.000~2.776) | 0.050 | 1.690(0.998~2.863) | 0.051 |
腰围升高 | 5.910(2.920~11.964) | <0.001 | 6.094(2.962~12.537) | <0.001 |
收缩压升高 | 2.337(1.468~3.723) | <0.001 | 2.291(1.423~3.689) | 0.001 |
TC(以参考范围为参照) | ||||
边缘升高 | 1.771(1.171~2.679) | 0.007 | 1.798(1.178~2.744) | 0.007 |
升高 | 3.959(2.385~6.572) | <0.001 | 3.609(2.144~6.074) | <0.001 |
收缩压×高血压用药史 | 3.269(1.915~5.579) | <0.001 | 3.505(2.021~6.078) | <0.001 |
体质类型(以平和质为参照) | ||||
阳虚质 | 1.200(0.607~2.373) | 0.601 | ||
阴虚质 | 2.679(1.438~4.993) | 0.002 | ||
痰湿质 | 3.067(1.750~5.374) | <0.001 | ||
血瘀质 | 2.530(1.276~5.014) | 0.008 | ||
气郁质 | 0.418(0.136~1.285) | 0.128 | ||
其他b | 1.010(0.408~2.500) | 0.982 |
变量 | AUC | 95%CI | P值 | 最佳截断值 | 灵敏度(%) | 特异度(%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
模型2 | 0.818 | 0.787~0.848 | <0.001 | 0.194 | 67.70 | 80.83 |
模型1 | 0.796 | 0.766~0.830 | <0.001 | 0.163 | 74.34 | 75.76 |
Table 4 AUC,optimal cutoff value,sensitivity,and specificity of Model 1 and Model 2 for predicting ASCVD events
变量 | AUC | 95%CI | P值 | 最佳截断值 | 灵敏度(%) | 特异度(%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
模型2 | 0.818 | 0.787~0.848 | <0.001 | 0.194 | 67.70 | 80.83 |
模型1 | 0.796 | 0.766~0.830 | <0.001 | 0.163 | 74.34 | 75.76 |
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