Patients with liver cirrhosis complicated by gastroesophageal variceal and rupture hemorrhage have a certain probability of rebleeding events after endoscopic treatment, and the bleeding volume of rebleeding events is greater with higher risk, which seriously affects the survival rates of patients.

To investigate the independent risk factors of rebleeding events within 3 years after endoscopic treatment in cirrhotic patients with gastroesophageal variceal hemorrhage, construct a nomogram risk prediction model and validate it internally.

Four hundred and three patients who underwent endoscopic treatment for liver cirrhosis associated gastroesophageal varices at the Tangdu Hospital and Xijing Hospital, Air Force Medical University from 2011-2022 were retrospectively collected and divided into the rebleeding group (n=252) and control group (n=151) based on the presence of rebleeding within 3 years. The general data and auxiliary examination results of the patients between both groups were compared, and the statistically significant factors were included in the multivariate Logistic regression analysis to analyze the independent risk factors. These data were then input into the R language software to construct a nomogram risk prediction model by using a specific program package.

Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that smoking〔OR=2.499, 95%CI (1.232, 5.066), P=0.011〕, portal vein internal diameter〔OR=1.047, 95%CI (1.028, 1.066), P<0.001〕, serum sodium concentration〔OR=0.649, 95%CI (0.562, 0.750), P<0.001〕 and endoscopic red sign〔OR=3.023, 95%CI (1.341, 6.814), P=0.008〕 were influencing factors of rebleeding events within 3 years after endoscopic treatment in cirrhotic patients with gastroesophageal variceal hemorrhage. A nomogram prediction model for rebleeding within 3 years after endoscopic treatment was subsequently constructed, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.900〔95%CI (0.876, 0.929) 〕 with sensitivity and specificity of 0.927 and 0.750, respectively.

Serum sodium level, positive endoscopic red sign, smoking, and enlarged portal vein internal diameter are independent influencing factors for rebleeding events within three years after endoscopic treatment in cirrhotic patients with gastroesophageal variceal hemorrhage. The nomogram prediction model exhibited a good fit with an area under the ROC curve of 0.900, showing its high-quality predictive value.

肝硬化并发胃食管静脉曲张及破裂出血患者经过内镜治疗后有一定概率会发生再出血事件，且再次出血的出血量更大，严重影响患者生存率。

探讨肝硬化胃食管静脉曲张患者接受内镜治疗后3年内发生再出血事件的独立危险因素，构建Nomogram列线图风险预测模型并进行内部验证。

回顾性收集中国人民解放军空军军医大学唐都医院、中国人民解放军空军军医大学西京医院2011—2022年因肝硬化胃食管静脉曲张接受内镜治疗的患者403例，根据其3年内是否有再出血事件发生分为再出血组（n=252）和对照组（n=151），比较两组患者的一般情况、辅助检查等资料。并将有统计学意义的因素纳入多因素Logistic回归分析，探讨其独立危险因素。将以上数据纳入R语言软件中，利用程序包构建Nomogram列线图风险预测模型。

多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示，吸烟〔OR=2.499，95%CI（1.232，5.066），P=0.011〕、门静脉内径〔OR=1.047，95%CI（1.028，1.066），P<0.001〕、血清钠离子水平〔OR=0.649，95%CI（0.562，0.750），P<0.001〕以及镜下红色征表现〔OR=3.023，95%CI（1.341，6.814），P=0.008〕是肝硬化胃食管静脉曲张内镜治疗后3年内发生再出血的影响因素。构建肝硬化胃食管静脉曲张内镜治疗后3年内发生再出血的Nomogram列线图预测模型，模型的受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线下面积为0.900〔95%CI（0.876，0.929）〕，灵敏度为0.927，特异度为0.750。

血清钠离子水平、镜下红色征阳性、吸烟、门静脉内径是肝硬化胃食管静脉曲张患者接受内镜治疗后3年内发生再出血事件的独立影响因素。肝硬化胃食管静脉曲张患者接受内镜治疗后3年内发生再出血事件的Nomogram列线图预测模型拟合优度良好，预测模型的ROC曲线下面积为0.900，预测价值较高。