The disease spectrum of Chinese residents is undergoing fundamental changes. Chronic diseases have become the most important public health problem.

To reveal the evolution logic of hot topics in the field of chronic disease management, the research hotspots and evolution paths of chronic disease management were visually analyzed. A prediction model based on trend degree is generated to reveal the future development direction of hot topics in the field of chronic disease management.

The literature search time was as of April 30, 2023. The type was limited to academic journals, and non-research literatures such as academic papers, meeting minutes, news reports, and expert consensus were excluded. Relevant literatures are retrieved in China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), VIP Chinese Science and Technology Journal Full-text Database, and Wanfang Data Knowledge Service Platform. In order to ensure the quality of the included literature, the journal types were limited to Peking University Core, China Science Citation Database (CSCD) and Chinese Social Sciences Citation Index (CSSCI). Based on text mining technology and bibliometric methods, this paper used VOSviewer software to draw a co-word timeline network map, and deeply analyzes the structural relationship and evolution characteristics of research hotspots in chronic disease management. Based on cluster analysis and strategic coordinate analysis, the research status and development trend of its clustering theme were revealed. The topic trend degree index was constructed by weighting and superimposing the characteristic indexes including topic novelty and intensity indexes. The three exponential smoothing way was used to predict and analyze the time series of topic trend degree.

At the initial stage, the research focus in the field of chronic disease management was policy-oriented and fragmented, and gradually developed towards a diversified trend, forming a multi-center network structure with core nodes, such as "diabetes" "hypertension" "community" "management mode" "hierarchical diagnosis and treatment" "medical consortium" "Internet medicine", and "sports medicine integration".

The related literature in the field of chronic disease management showed an exponential growth trend. It has become a key research topic in academia. Multiple chronic disease management, chronic disease management of specific groups, psychological status of patients with chronic diseases, intelligent medical care, chronic disease management of traditional Chinese medicine, and big health management are emerging hot topics in the field of chronic disease management at this stage. Grassroots chronic disease management is a marginal research content, and the research results are not yet mature. In the future, we should focus on the research on the health management model of chronic disease comorbidity, continue to explore the deep integration mechanism of big data, cloud computing, Internet of things and wearable devices with chronic disease management, innovate the new model of chronic disease management based on the integration of medical treatment and prevention, and create a new health management plan for the whole population and the whole life cycle.