Abstract: Background　With the acceleration of population aging in China, the issue of elderly care in rural areas has become increasingly prominent, and elderly care vulnerability has become an important indicator for measuring the quality of elderly care. Objective　To identify the dynamic change trajectories of family-based elderly care vulnerability among rural elderly in Xinjiang and to predict its development level over the next six years, so as to provide a theoretical basis for formulating rural elderly care service policies in Xinjiang. Methods　Data were obtained from the longitudinal survey titled "Elderly Care Status of Rural Elderly in Xinjiang" conducted by the research team in rural areas of Urumqi, Xinjiang, from January to June 2017 to April 2025. A multistage stratified random sampling method was adopted to select rural residents aged ≥ 60 in Urumqi as the study subjects. The baseline survey was completed from January to June 2017, followed by follow-up surveys every two years in January－June 2019, January-June 2021, January-June 2023, and January-April 2025, with a total of 1 133 valid samples ultimately included. The survey contents included general information (age, gender, marital status, financial sources for elderly care, etc.) and the family-based elderly care vulnerability questionnaire. The entropy weight TOPSIS method was used to calculate the family－based elderly care vulnerability index; the group-based trajectory model (GBTM) was applied to fit the heterogeneous trajectories of the vulnerability index; and the grey prediction model GM (1, 1) was employed to predict the level of elderly care vulnerability from 2026 to 2031. Results　From 2017 to 2025, the family-based elderly care vulnerability index of rural elderly in Xinjiang showed an overall slow upward trend. The GBTM identified three distinct trajectory groups: a low-level stable group (V1) with 453 cases (39.98%), a medium-level persistent group (V2) with 521 cases (45.98%), and a high-level rising group (V3) with 159 cases (14.03%). The grey prediction model revealed that the predicted vulnerability index values for the V1, V2, and V3 groups would be 0.098, 0.108, and 0.118 in 2027; 0.186, 0.202, and 0.219 in 2029; and 0.405, 0.441, and 0.480 in 2031, respectively. Conclusion　The family-based elderly care vulnerability of rural elderly in Xinjiang will remain at a relatively high level and show a continuous upward trend over the next six years. Attention should be paid to the characteristics of the rural elderly themselves and the disparities in elderly care resources, so as to formulate more precise elderly care strategies.

Key words: Family-based eldercare vulnerability, Rural health, GBTM model, Grey forecasting model, Cohort study, Xinjiang

摘要： 背景　随着我国人口老龄化进程加快，农村老年人养老问题日益凸显，养老脆弱性成为衡量养老质量的重要指标。目的　识别新疆农村老年人家庭养老脆弱性的动态变化轨迹，并预测其未来6年内的发展水平，为制定新疆农村养老服务政策提供理论基础。方法　研究数据源于课题组2017年1—2025年4月，在新疆乌鲁木齐市农村地区进行的“新疆农村老年人养老状况”纵贯调查。该调查采用多阶段分层随机抽样法，以乌鲁木齐市农村≥60岁老年人为研究对象，于2017年1—6月完成基线调查，于2019年1—6月、2021年1—6月、2023年1—6月、2025年1—4月完成每2年1次的随访调查，最终纳入有效样本1 133例。问卷调查内容包括居民的一般情况（年龄、性别、婚姻状况、养老主要经济来源）及家庭养老脆弱性调查问卷。运用熵权-TOPSIS法测算家庭养老脆弱性指数，采用群组轨迹模型（GBTM）拟合脆弱性指数的异质性变化轨迹，采用灰色预测模型GM（1，1）预测2026—2031年养老脆弱性水平。结果　2017—2025年新疆农村老年人家庭养老脆弱性指数总体呈缓慢上升趋势。GBTM模型将动态变化轨迹拟合为3个类别：低水平稳定组453例（39.98%）、中水平持续组521例（45.98%）、高水平上升组159例（14.03%）。灰色预测模型显示，低水平稳定组、中水平持续组、高水平上升组的脆弱性指数预测值：2027年分别为0.098、0.108、0.118，2029年分别为0.186、0.202、0.219，2031年分别为0.405、0.441、0.480。结论　新疆农村老年人家庭养老脆弱性在未来6年处于较高水平且呈持续上升趋势，应关注农村老年人自身特点及养老资源的差异性，制定更精准的养老策略。

关键词: 家庭养老脆弱性, 农村卫生, GBTM 模型, 灰色预测模型, 队列研究, 新疆