Chinese General Practice ›› 2025, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (26): 3276-3282.DOI: 10.12114/j.issn.1007-9572.2024.0407
• Original Research • Previous Articles Next Articles
Received:
2024-07-20
Revised:
2024-10-10
Published:
2025-09-15
Online:
2025-07-22
Contact:
BA Lei
通讯作者:
巴磊
作者简介:
作者贡献:
胡洁蔓负责研究设计和论文撰写;谭斐翔负责研究设计、数据收集和整理;袁安新负责研究构思、数据收集和整理;陈世宇负责数据收集和整理;唐楚蕾负责研究设计、数据统计;殷月姮负责数据统计;巴磊负责研究设计、文章质量控制和审校;许勤负责研究设计和研究实施监督。
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类别 | AIC | BIC | aBIC | Entropy | LMR | BLRT | 类别概率 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
线性拟合 | |||||||
1C | 5 066.797 | 5 102.116 | 5 073.561 | 1 | |||
2C | 5 011.070 | 5 058.161 | 5 020.088 | 0.817 | 0.000 2 | <0.001 | 0.782 00/0.218 00 |
3C | 4 976.423 | 5 035.286 | 4 987.696 | 0.870 | 0.008 3 | <0.001 | 0.793 91/0.067 28/0.138 82 |
4C | 4 961.911 | 5 032.548 | 4 975.439 | 0.797 | 0.095 7 | <0.001 | 0.334 13/0.487 22/0.111 55/0.067 10 |
5C | 4 966.364 | 5 048.773 | 4 982.146 | 0.848 | 0.128 1 | 0.307 7 | 0.062 05/0.062 46/0.129 16/0.017 93/0.728 41 |
二次拟合 | |||||||
1C | 4 786.938 | 4 837.954 | 4 796.708 | 1 | |||
2C | 4 736.404 | 4 803.116 | 4 749.180 | 0.848 | <0.001 | <0.001 | 0.832 60/0.167 40 |
3C | 4 726.024 | 4 808.434 | 4 741.807 | 0.765 | 0.279 3 | <0.001 | 0.452 32/0.151 42/0.396 26 |
4C | 4 698.412 | 4 796.519 | 4 717.201 | 0.882 | 0.685 6 | <0.001 | 0.122 60/0.788 74/0.054 57/0.034 09 |
5C | 4 678.556 | 4 792.359 | 4 700.350 | 0.845 | 0.085 4 | <0.001 | 0.112 93/0.368 37/0.027 34/0.052 82/0.438 53 |
自由估计 | |||||||
1C | 5 065.798 | 5 105.041 | 5 073.314 | 1 | |||
2C | 5 010.532 | 5 061.547 | 5 020.302 | 0.868 | 0.001 4 | <0.001 | 0.888 39/0.111 61 |
3C | 4 956.531 | 5 019.319 | 4 968.555 | 0.877 | 0.040 2 | <0.001 | 0.066 84/0.815 51/0.117 64 |
4C | 4 940.469 | 5 015.030 | 4 954.748 | 0.795 | 0.010 3 | <0.001 | 0.073 10/0.490 37/0.107 95/0.328 58 |
5C | 4 947.344 | 5 033.678 | 4 963.878 | 0.914 | 0.007 7 | <0.001 | 0.794 76/0/0.064 95/0.021 08/0.119 21 |
Table 1 Summary result of fitting information of GMM model
类别 | AIC | BIC | aBIC | Entropy | LMR | BLRT | 类别概率 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
线性拟合 | |||||||
1C | 5 066.797 | 5 102.116 | 5 073.561 | 1 | |||
2C | 5 011.070 | 5 058.161 | 5 020.088 | 0.817 | 0.000 2 | <0.001 | 0.782 00/0.218 00 |
3C | 4 976.423 | 5 035.286 | 4 987.696 | 0.870 | 0.008 3 | <0.001 | 0.793 91/0.067 28/0.138 82 |
4C | 4 961.911 | 5 032.548 | 4 975.439 | 0.797 | 0.095 7 | <0.001 | 0.334 13/0.487 22/0.111 55/0.067 10 |
5C | 4 966.364 | 5 048.773 | 4 982.146 | 0.848 | 0.128 1 | 0.307 7 | 0.062 05/0.062 46/0.129 16/0.017 93/0.728 41 |
二次拟合 | |||||||
1C | 4 786.938 | 4 837.954 | 4 796.708 | 1 | |||
2C | 4 736.404 | 4 803.116 | 4 749.180 | 0.848 | <0.001 | <0.001 | 0.832 60/0.167 40 |
3C | 4 726.024 | 4 808.434 | 4 741.807 | 0.765 | 0.279 3 | <0.001 | 0.452 32/0.151 42/0.396 26 |
4C | 4 698.412 | 4 796.519 | 4 717.201 | 0.882 | 0.685 6 | <0.001 | 0.122 60/0.788 74/0.054 57/0.034 09 |
5C | 4 678.556 | 4 792.359 | 4 700.350 | 0.845 | 0.085 4 | <0.001 | 0.112 93/0.368 37/0.027 34/0.052 82/0.438 53 |
自由估计 | |||||||
1C | 5 065.798 | 5 105.041 | 5 073.314 | 1 | |||
2C | 5 010.532 | 5 061.547 | 5 020.302 | 0.868 | 0.001 4 | <0.001 | 0.888 39/0.111 61 |
3C | 4 956.531 | 5 019.319 | 4 968.555 | 0.877 | 0.040 2 | <0.001 | 0.066 84/0.815 51/0.117 64 |
4C | 4 940.469 | 5 015.030 | 4 954.748 | 0.795 | 0.010 3 | <0.001 | 0.073 10/0.490 37/0.107 95/0.328 58 |
5C | 4 947.344 | 5 033.678 | 4 963.878 | 0.914 | 0.007 7 | <0.001 | 0.794 76/0/0.064 95/0.021 08/0.119 21 |
类别 | 估计值 | 标准误 | t值 | P值 |
---|---|---|---|---|
类别1(n=25) | ||||
截距 | 9.002 | 0.505 | 17.830 | <0.001 |
斜率 | -0.854 | 0.245 | -3.492 | <0.001 |
类别2(n=305) | ||||
截距 | 4.172 | 0.146 | 28.594 | <0.001 |
斜率 | -0.341 | 0.061 | -5.551 | <0.001 |
类别3(n=44) | ||||
截距 | 8.780 | 0.302 | 29.046 | <0.001 |
斜率 | -0.117 | 0.114 | -1.027 | 0.304 |
Table 2 GMM model parameter estimation results(free estimation)
类别 | 估计值 | 标准误 | t值 | P值 |
---|---|---|---|---|
类别1(n=25) | ||||
截距 | 9.002 | 0.505 | 17.830 | <0.001 |
斜率 | -0.854 | 0.245 | -3.492 | <0.001 |
类别2(n=305) | ||||
截距 | 4.172 | 0.146 | 28.594 | <0.001 |
斜率 | -0.341 | 0.061 | -5.551 | <0.001 |
类别3(n=44) | ||||
截距 | 8.780 | 0.302 | 29.046 | <0.001 |
斜率 | -0.117 | 0.114 | -1.027 | 0.304 |
变量 | 是(n=69) | 否(n=305) | 检验统计量值 | P值 |
---|---|---|---|---|
一般特征 | ||||
年龄[M(QR),岁] | 71(17) | 66(13) | -3.599 | <0.001 |
性别[例(%)] | 0.365a | 0.222 | ||
女 | 22(31.9) | 115(37.7) | ||
男 | 47(68.1) | 190(62.3) | ||
婚姻状态[例(%)] | 10.279a | 0.006 | ||
已婚 | 54(78.3) | 276(90.5) | ||
丧偶 | 12(17.4) | 18(5.9) | ||
其他 | 3(4.3) | 11(3.6) | ||
受教育程度[例(%)] | 5.777a | 0.216 | ||
小学及以下 | 22(31.9) | 90(29.5) | ||
初中 | 21(30.4) | 72(23.6) | ||
高中(含中专) | 14(20.3) | 80(26.2) | ||
大专 | 2(2.9) | 30(9.8) | ||
大学及以上 | 10(14.5) | 33(10.8) | ||
居住地[例(%)] | 0.755a | 0.385 | ||
城市 | 50(72.5) | 236(77.4) | ||
农村 | 19(27.5) | 69(22.6) | ||
医疗费用主要支付方式[例(%)] | 7.918a | 0.051 | ||
城镇职工基本医疗保险 | 31(44.9) | 143(46.9) | ||
新型农村合作医疗 | 15(21.7) | 49(16.1) | ||
城镇居民基本医疗保险 | 21(30.4) | 71(23.3) | ||
其他 | 2(2.9) | 42(13.8) | ||
BMI( | 22.2±3.2 | 23.8±3.1 | 3.695b | <0.001 |
营养评分[M(QR),分] | 7(3) | 10(2) | -8.449 | <0.001 |
疾病特征 | ||||
肿瘤分期[例(%)] | 41.413a | <0.001 | ||
1期 | 6(8.7) | 87(28.5) | ||
2期 | 10(14.5) | 102(33.4) | ||
3期 | 42(60.9) | 106(34.7) | ||
4期 | 11(15.9) | 10(3.3) | ||
病理分级[例(%)] | 10.355a | 0.006 | ||
高分化 | 1(1.4) | 29(9.5) | ||
中分化 | 51(73.9) | 238(78.0) | ||
低分化 | 17(24.6) | 38(12.4) | ||
组织类型[例(%)] | 0.603a | 0.437 | ||
腺癌 | 66(95.6) | 284(93.1) | ||
其他 | 3(4.4) | 21(6.9) | ||
合并症数量[例(%)] | 6.773a | 0.034 | ||
0~1种 | 44(63.8) | 232(76.1) | ||
2~3种 | 20(29.0) | 66(21.6) | ||
>3种 | 5(7.2) | 7(2.3) | ||
住院史[例(%)] | 1.800a | 0.180 | ||
无 | 33(47.8) | 173(56.7) | ||
有 | 36(52.2) | 132(43.3) | ||
治疗方式 | ||||
新辅助治疗[例(%)] | 58.799a | <0.001 | ||
否 | 45(65.2) | 292(95.7) | ||
是 | 24(34.8) | 13(4.3) | ||
手术方式[例(%)] | 10.030a | 0.007 | ||
开腹 | 16(23.2) | 29(9.5) | ||
微创 | 51(73.9) | 263(86.2) | ||
机器人辅助 | 2(2.9) | 13(4.3) | ||
造口情况[例(%)] | 66.378a | <0.001 | ||
无 | 31(44.9) | 269(88.2) | ||
有 | 38(55.1) | 36(11.8) | ||
术后放化疗[例(%)] | 35.407a | <0.001 | ||
否 | 16(23.2) | 191(62.6) | ||
是 | 53(76.8) | 114(37.4) | ||
心理状况 | ||||
焦虑情况[例(%)] | 61.747a | <0.001 | ||
无 | 11(15.9) | 202(66.2) | ||
轻度 | 30(43.5) | 66(21.6) | ||
中度 | 22(31.9) | 30(9.8) | ||
重度 | 6(8.7) | 7(2.3) | ||
抑郁情况[例(%)] | 108.336a | <0.001 | ||
无 | 8(11.6) | 223(73.1) | ||
轻度 | 21(30.4) | 51(16.7) | ||
中度 | 27(39.1) | 23(7.5) | ||
重度 | 13(18.8) | 8(2.6) | ||
人际关系 | ||||
家庭功能[M(QR),分] | 2.40(1.09) | 2.16(1.13) | -3.821 | <0.001 |
社会支持[M(QR),分] | 21(8) | 25(32) | -4.404 | <0.001 |
Table 3 Results of univariate analysis of heterogeneous frailty trajectories
变量 | 是(n=69) | 否(n=305) | 检验统计量值 | P值 |
---|---|---|---|---|
一般特征 | ||||
年龄[M(QR),岁] | 71(17) | 66(13) | -3.599 | <0.001 |
性别[例(%)] | 0.365a | 0.222 | ||
女 | 22(31.9) | 115(37.7) | ||
男 | 47(68.1) | 190(62.3) | ||
婚姻状态[例(%)] | 10.279a | 0.006 | ||
已婚 | 54(78.3) | 276(90.5) | ||
丧偶 | 12(17.4) | 18(5.9) | ||
其他 | 3(4.3) | 11(3.6) | ||
受教育程度[例(%)] | 5.777a | 0.216 | ||
小学及以下 | 22(31.9) | 90(29.5) | ||
初中 | 21(30.4) | 72(23.6) | ||
高中(含中专) | 14(20.3) | 80(26.2) | ||
大专 | 2(2.9) | 30(9.8) | ||
大学及以上 | 10(14.5) | 33(10.8) | ||
居住地[例(%)] | 0.755a | 0.385 | ||
城市 | 50(72.5) | 236(77.4) | ||
农村 | 19(27.5) | 69(22.6) | ||
医疗费用主要支付方式[例(%)] | 7.918a | 0.051 | ||
城镇职工基本医疗保险 | 31(44.9) | 143(46.9) | ||
新型农村合作医疗 | 15(21.7) | 49(16.1) | ||
城镇居民基本医疗保险 | 21(30.4) | 71(23.3) | ||
其他 | 2(2.9) | 42(13.8) | ||
BMI( | 22.2±3.2 | 23.8±3.1 | 3.695b | <0.001 |
营养评分[M(QR),分] | 7(3) | 10(2) | -8.449 | <0.001 |
疾病特征 | ||||
肿瘤分期[例(%)] | 41.413a | <0.001 | ||
1期 | 6(8.7) | 87(28.5) | ||
2期 | 10(14.5) | 102(33.4) | ||
3期 | 42(60.9) | 106(34.7) | ||
4期 | 11(15.9) | 10(3.3) | ||
病理分级[例(%)] | 10.355a | 0.006 | ||
高分化 | 1(1.4) | 29(9.5) | ||
中分化 | 51(73.9) | 238(78.0) | ||
低分化 | 17(24.6) | 38(12.4) | ||
组织类型[例(%)] | 0.603a | 0.437 | ||
腺癌 | 66(95.6) | 284(93.1) | ||
其他 | 3(4.4) | 21(6.9) | ||
合并症数量[例(%)] | 6.773a | 0.034 | ||
0~1种 | 44(63.8) | 232(76.1) | ||
2~3种 | 20(29.0) | 66(21.6) | ||
>3种 | 5(7.2) | 7(2.3) | ||
住院史[例(%)] | 1.800a | 0.180 | ||
无 | 33(47.8) | 173(56.7) | ||
有 | 36(52.2) | 132(43.3) | ||
治疗方式 | ||||
新辅助治疗[例(%)] | 58.799a | <0.001 | ||
否 | 45(65.2) | 292(95.7) | ||
是 | 24(34.8) | 13(4.3) | ||
手术方式[例(%)] | 10.030a | 0.007 | ||
开腹 | 16(23.2) | 29(9.5) | ||
微创 | 51(73.9) | 263(86.2) | ||
机器人辅助 | 2(2.9) | 13(4.3) | ||
造口情况[例(%)] | 66.378a | <0.001 | ||
无 | 31(44.9) | 269(88.2) | ||
有 | 38(55.1) | 36(11.8) | ||
术后放化疗[例(%)] | 35.407a | <0.001 | ||
否 | 16(23.2) | 191(62.6) | ||
是 | 53(76.8) | 114(37.4) | ||
心理状况 | ||||
焦虑情况[例(%)] | 61.747a | <0.001 | ||
无 | 11(15.9) | 202(66.2) | ||
轻度 | 30(43.5) | 66(21.6) | ||
中度 | 22(31.9) | 30(9.8) | ||
重度 | 6(8.7) | 7(2.3) | ||
抑郁情况[例(%)] | 108.336a | <0.001 | ||
无 | 8(11.6) | 223(73.1) | ||
轻度 | 21(30.4) | 51(16.7) | ||
中度 | 27(39.1) | 23(7.5) | ||
重度 | 13(18.8) | 8(2.6) | ||
人际关系 | ||||
家庭功能[M(QR),分] | 2.40(1.09) | 2.16(1.13) | -3.821 | <0.001 |
社会支持[M(QR),分] | 21(8) | 25(32) | -4.404 | <0.001 |
变量名 | 赋值 |
---|---|
年龄 | 实测值 |
婚姻状况 | 已婚(Z1=0,Z2=0),丧偶(Z1=1,Z2=0),其他(Z1=0,Z2=1) |
BMI | 实测值 |
营养评分 | 实测值 |
肿瘤分期 | 1期=1,2期=2,3期=3,4期=4 |
病理分级 | 高分化=1,中分化=2,低分化=3 |
合并症数量 | 0~1种=1,2~3种=2,>3种=3 |
新辅助治疗 | 否=0,是=1 |
手术方式 | 开腹(Z1=0,Z2=0),微创(Z1=1,Z2=0),机器人辅助(Z1=0,Z2=1) |
造口情况 | 无=0,有=1 |
术后放化疗 | 否=0,是=1 |
焦虑情况 | 无=0,轻度=1,中度=2,重度=3 |
抑郁情况 | 无=0,轻度=1,中度=2,重度=3 |
家庭功能 | 实测值 |
社会支持 | 实测值 |
Table 4 Assignment table of multivariate Logistic regression of influencing factors for frailty heterogeneity trajectory
变量名 | 赋值 |
---|---|
年龄 | 实测值 |
婚姻状况 | 已婚(Z1=0,Z2=0),丧偶(Z1=1,Z2=0),其他(Z1=0,Z2=1) |
BMI | 实测值 |
营养评分 | 实测值 |
肿瘤分期 | 1期=1,2期=2,3期=3,4期=4 |
病理分级 | 高分化=1,中分化=2,低分化=3 |
合并症数量 | 0~1种=1,2~3种=2,>3种=3 |
新辅助治疗 | 否=0,是=1 |
手术方式 | 开腹(Z1=0,Z2=0),微创(Z1=1,Z2=0),机器人辅助(Z1=0,Z2=1) |
造口情况 | 无=0,有=1 |
术后放化疗 | 否=0,是=1 |
焦虑情况 | 无=0,轻度=1,中度=2,重度=3 |
抑郁情况 | 无=0,轻度=1,中度=2,重度=3 |
家庭功能 | 实测值 |
社会支持 | 实测值 |
变量 | β | SE | Wald χ2值 | P值 | OR(95%CI) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
年龄 | 0.132 | 0.035 | 14.064 | <0.001 | 1.141(1.065~1.223) |
营养评分 | -0.857 | 0.171 | 20.050 | <0.001 | 0.424(0.303~0.594) |
合并症数量 | 1.059 | 0.466 | 5.173 | 0.023 | 2.884(1.158~7.184) |
新辅助治疗 | 3.385 | 0.856 | 15.632 | <0.001 | 29.510(5.511~158.007) |
造口情况 | 3.619 | 0.749 | 23.378 | <0.001 | 37.313(8.604~161.819) |
术后放化疗 | 4.555 | 0.859 | 28.132 | <0.001 | 95.071(17.664~511.674) |
抑郁情况 | 0.983 | 0.354 | 7.716 | 0.005 | 2.673(1.336~5.350) |
社会支持 | -0.127 | 0.051 | 6.144 | 0.013 | 0.881(0.797~0.974) |
Table 5 Multivariate Logistic regression of influencing factors for frailty heterogeneity trajectory
变量 | β | SE | Wald χ2值 | P值 | OR(95%CI) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
年龄 | 0.132 | 0.035 | 14.064 | <0.001 | 1.141(1.065~1.223) |
营养评分 | -0.857 | 0.171 | 20.050 | <0.001 | 0.424(0.303~0.594) |
合并症数量 | 1.059 | 0.466 | 5.173 | 0.023 | 2.884(1.158~7.184) |
新辅助治疗 | 3.385 | 0.856 | 15.632 | <0.001 | 29.510(5.511~158.007) |
造口情况 | 3.619 | 0.749 | 23.378 | <0.001 | 37.313(8.604~161.819) |
术后放化疗 | 4.555 | 0.859 | 28.132 | <0.001 | 95.071(17.664~511.674) |
抑郁情况 | 0.983 | 0.354 | 7.716 | 0.005 | 2.673(1.336~5.350) |
社会支持 | -0.127 | 0.051 | 6.144 | 0.013 | 0.881(0.797~0.974) |
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