There has been a widespread concern over the issue of the negative effects of brain cancer on physical and mental health, but there are few studies on the past and future trends of brain cancer mortality in China.

To perform an analysis of the trend of crude mortality rate (CMR) of brain cancers in 2000-2019, and that in 2020-2024 in China, providing a reference for formulating prevention and control strategies for brain cancers.

Data of brain cancer deaths in China from 2000 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, including CMR and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR, calculated using the age composition of the 2019 world population). The mortality trend was analyzed by Joinpoint regression model. The age, period and birth cohort effects of CMR were estimated by intrinsic estimator (IE) and age-period-cohort model (APC model). GM (1, 1) model was established by R (4.1.3) to predict the CMR of brain cancers in 2020-2024.

The Joinpoint regression analysis the ASMR of brain cancers showed a downward trend in the whole population, male and female populations. The ASMR of brain cancers in the whole population, male and female populations decreased by 0.68%, 0.47%, and 0.87% on average each year, respectively from 2000 to 2019 (P<0.05). The APC analysis revealed that the death risk of brain cancers in both Chinese male and female populations increased with age and period. The death risk of brain cancers in the late birth cohort was lower than that in the early birth cohort, that is, the effect coefficient decreased from 0.62 in the 1904-1908 birth cohort to -1.28 in the 2014-2019 birth cohort in male, and that increased from 0.36 in the 1904-1908 female cohort to 0.57 in the 1929-1933 birth cohort, then it gradually decreased, and hit its lowest point in the 2014-2019 birth cohort (-1.16) in female. GM (1, 1) model predicted that the CMR of brain cancers in China would continue to rise after 2019, reaching 4.34/10⁵ in 2020, 4.39/10⁵ in 2021, 4.44/10⁵ in 2022, 4.49/10⁵ in 2023 and 4.54/10⁵ in 2024.

During 2000 to 2019, the ASMR of brain cancers in China generally showed a downward trend, and the risk of brain cancer death increased with age and year. People who were born earlier had a greater risk of death. The predicted ASMR of brain cancers would continue to rise in 2020-2024. So strong measures should be still carried out to prevent and control brain cancers, such as strengthening the propaganda of prevention and control of brain cancers in high-risk groups, advocating a healthy lifestyle, and reducing the disease burden of brain cancers.

脑瘤对人们健康的危害已获得广泛关注，但目前仍少有针对我国脑瘤死亡趋势分析与预测的有关研究。

分析2000—2019年中国脑瘤的死亡变化趋势，并预测未来5年脑瘤的粗死亡率（CMR），为脑瘤防治策略的制订提供资料。

提取2019年全球疾病负担研究（GBD）数据库中2000—2019年中国脑瘤死亡数据，包括CMR和年龄标化死亡率（以2019年全球人口数据进行标化，ASMR）。应用Joinpoint回归模型分析死亡趋势，采用内生因子估算法（IE算法）和年龄-时期-队列模型（APC模型）估计CMR的年龄、时期和出生队列效应。通过R（4.1.3）软件对2000—2019年脑瘤死亡数据建立GM（1，1）模型，预测未来5年脑瘤CMR。

Joinpoint回归模型结果显示，2000—2019年全国脑瘤ASMR与不同性别ASMR均呈下降趋势，全国脑瘤ASMR平均每年下降0.68%，男性脑瘤ASMR平均每年下降0.47%，女性脑瘤ASMR平均每年下降0.87%（P<0.05）。APC模型显示，中国男性脑瘤死亡风险随年龄的变化呈先降低后升高再降低的趋势，随时期变化是上升趋势，女性脑瘤的死亡风险均随年龄和时期增加而增大，即男性效应系数从1904—1908年出生队列组的0.62降低至2014—2019年出生队列组的-1.28，女性效应系数从1904—1908年出生队列组的0.36升高到1929—1933年出生队列组的0.57，随后逐渐降低，2014—2019年出生队列组的效应系数最低（-1.16）。GM（1，1）模型预测结果显示，2019年后我国脑瘤CMR将持续上升，2020—2024年CMR将会达到4.34/10万、4.39/10万、4.44/10万、4.49/10万、4.54/10万。

2000—2019年中国脑瘤ASMR总体呈下降趋势，死亡风险随着年龄的增大和时期的推移而增大，越早出生其死亡风险越大。模型预测结果显示未来5年中国脑瘤死亡率均持续上升，我国脑瘤防控形势依旧严峻，应加强我国脑瘤高发人群的防治宣传工作，提倡良好正确的生活方式，降低脑瘤的疾病负担。