General practitioners, as the gatekeepers of resident health, are the main force in China's grassroots medical and health services. The prominent problems of shortage of grassroots talent resources and unreasonable talent structure in Xinjiang Uygur (Xinjiang) urgently need to be solved.

On the basis of understanding the current situation of the allocation of general practitioners in Xinjiang, to evaluate the fairness of allocation and predict the number of general practitioners in demand and gaps in the autonomous region from 2025 to 2030, so as to provide a reference for the rational allocation and training of general practitioners in the region.

Data on general practitioners in Xinjiang from 2012 to 2019 was collected, with sources including the China Statistical Yearbook (2021), the China Health Statistics Yearbook (2013-2020), and documents from the Health Commission of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The allocation fairness of general practitioners was analysed using the concentration index, lorenz curve, and gini coefficient. Additionally, the average growth model and health demand forecasting method were utilised to predict the required number of general practitioners and the corresponding shortfall.

The average annual growth rate of general practitioners in Xinjiang was 16.58%. It is predicted that by 2025, 9 411-9 452 general practitioners will be needed, with a gap of 3 938-3 979; the agglomeration degrees of area allocation were all less than 1, and the agglomeration degrees of both were declining year by year; the number of general practitioner training places in each region and the overall Gini coefficient were less than 0.300, and the overall and northern Xinjiang regions were all allocated according to geographical area. The Gini coefficients were 0.415 and 0.457, and the Gini coefficients of other regions were all less than 0.300.

The allocation and training of general practitioners in Xinjiang has made some progress, the growth rate is fast, and the number has reached the overall goal, but there is still a big gap. The fairness of general practitioner resources allocation based on population is better than allocation based on geography. It is the main source of unfair allocation of training places according to geographical area. Therefore, in the further allocation and training of general practitioners, it is necessary to continue to strengthen the team of general practitioners on the basis of reference to the forecasted demand and gap, and to continuously improve the fairness of allocation based on geographic area with key areas as the starting point. While ensuring the number of general practitioners, the accessibility of health services should be taken into account.

全科医生作为居民健康的"守门人"，是我国基层医疗卫生服务的主力军。新疆维吾尔自治区（以下简称新疆）基层人才资源比较短缺、人才结构不合理等突出问题亟待解决。

在了解新疆全科医生配置现状基础上，评价配置公平性并预测2025—2030年新疆全科医生需求数和缺口数，为全区全科医生合理配置及培养提供参考依据。

收集2012—2019年新疆全科医生相关数据，数据来源于《中国统计年鉴》（2021年）、《中国卫生健康统计年鉴》（2013—2020年）和新疆维吾尔自治区卫生健康委员会文件。应用集聚度、洛伦兹曲线和基尼系数分析全科医生配置公平性，并结合平均增长模型和卫生需求预测法对全科医生需求数和缺口数进行预测。

新疆全科医生年均增长率为16.58%，预测到2025年需要9 411~9 452名全科医生，存在3 938~3 979名的缺口；全科医生资源按人口配置集聚度均大于0，按地理面积配置集聚度均小于1，且两者集聚度均呈逐年下降趋势；全科医生培训名额数按人口配置的各地区及总体基尼系数均小于0.300，按地理面积配置的总体及新疆北部地区的基尼系数为0.415、0.457，其他地区的基尼系数均小于0.300。

新疆全科医生配置及培养工作取得了一定进展，增速较快，数量达到总体目标，但仍存在较大缺口，全科医生资源按人口配置公平性优于按地理配置，其中新疆北部地区是培训名额按地理面积配置不公平的主要来源。因此在进一步的全科医生配置及培养工作中，应当在参考预测需求数和缺口数的基础上，继续壮大全科医生队伍，以重点地区为切入点不断提高按地理面积配置的公平性，在保证全科医生数量的同时，兼顾卫生服务可及性。