Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are increasingly prevalent in Chinese residents, and are happening younger and younger, which have become a major threat to population health.

To analyze the characteristics and trends of premature deaths due to major NCDs among Shenzhen permanent residents aged 30-69 from 2014 to 2020, providing a basis for the formulation of chronic disease prevention and control policies.

The cause-of-death data of Shenzhen permanent residents (30-69 years old) came from the all-cause-of-death surveillance system operated by the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The causes were classified into four major NCDs including cancer (C00-C97), diabetes (E10-E14), cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases (I00-I99), and chronic respiratory disease (J30-J98) in accordance with the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10). Crude mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature death were used for analyzing deaths due to the four above-mentioned NCDs. The annual percentage change (APC) was used to measure the temporal trend of each index.

During 2014-2020, no significant changes were found in the overall trends of crude mortality and age-standardized mortality of the four major NCDs (APC=-2.70%, P>0.05; APC=-2.00%, P>0.05), while the proportion of deaths due to the four major NCDs of all deaths (76.58% -82.63%) showed a significantly increasing trend (APC=1.20%, P <0.05). To be specific, the trend of crude mortality of cancer (APC=-1.90%, -0.90%; P>0.05), diabetes (APC=3.80%, 2.20%; P>0.05) and chronic respiratory diseases (APC=-1.30%, -0.60%; P>0.05) changed insignificantly, so did the trend of age-standardized mortality of them, while the crude mortality and age-standardized mortality (34.22%-48.85%) of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases showed a notable decrease (APC=-4.70%, -4.60%; P<0.05). In women, the crude mortality and age-standardized mortality of diabetes demonstrated a notable decrease (APC=-17.00%, -17.00%; P<0.05), so did those of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease (APC=-7.10%, -6.10%; P<0.05). The probability of premature death caused by the four major NCDs during the period fluctuated from 10.17 to 12.45%, but with no significant changes (P>0.05). But the trend in the probability of premature death caused by cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease showed an obvious decrease (APC=-5.10%, P<0.05). The probability of premature death from diabetes and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in women decreased (APC=-18.70%, -5.40%; P<0.05). The probability of premature death caused by the four major NCDs in males ranged from 12.78% to 17.09%, which was higher than that (6.59% to 8.13%) in females.

The crude mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature death caused by cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease among Shenzhen permanent residents showed a decreasing trend during 2014-2020. In particular, the crude mortality and age-standardized mortality and probability of premature death of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease and diabetes among females declined significantly. The probability of premature death of the four major chronic diseases fluctuated between 12.78%-17.09% in males and 6.59%-8.13% in females. The probability of premature death of the four major chronic diseases in males was higher than that in females.

近年来我国居民慢性非传染性疾病（简称慢性病）患病率逐年上升，患病人群呈现年轻化趋势，且已成为人群健康的主要威胁。

分析2014—2020年深圳市30~69岁户籍居民主要慢性病过早死亡特征及变化趋势，为制订慢性病防控政策提供依据。

2014—2020年深圳市户籍居民死亡资料及死因资料来源于深圳市疾病预防控制中心全死因监测系统。根据国际疾病分类（ICD-10）进行统计，4类主要慢性病包括恶性肿瘤（C00-C97）、糖尿病（E10-E14）、心脑血管疾病（I00-I99）和慢性呼吸系统疾病（J30-J98）。计算4类主要慢性病死亡率、标化死亡率、早死概率。采用年度变化百分比（APC）观察各指标变化情况。

2014—2020年，深圳市30~69岁户籍人口居民4类主要慢性病死亡率、标化死亡率变化趋势无统计学意义（APC=-2.70%，P>0.05；APC=-2.00%，P>0.05），4类慢性病合计死亡占总死亡人数比例（76.58%~82.63%）呈上升趋势，差异有统计学意义（APC=1.20%，P<0.05）。其中，恶性肿瘤（APC分别为-1.90%、-0.90%，P均>0.05）、糖尿病（APC分别为3.80%、2.20%，P均>0.05）和慢性呼吸系统疾病（APC分别为-1.30%、-0.60%，P均>0.05）死亡率和标化死亡率变化趋势无统计学意义，心脑血管疾病死亡率、标化死亡率（34.22%~48.85%）呈下降趋势（APC分别为-4.70%、-4.60%，P<0.05）。女性糖尿病（APC分别为-17.00%、-17.00%，P<0.05）、心脑血管疾病（APC分别为-7.10%、-6.10%，P<0.05）死亡率和标化死亡率呈下降趋势。2014—2020年深圳市30~69岁户籍人口4类主要慢性病早死概率在10.17~12.45%波动，早死概率变化趋势无统计学意义（P>0.05）；心脑血管疾病早死概率呈下降趋势（APC=-5.10%，P<0.05）。女性糖尿病、心脑血管疾病早死概率呈下降趋势（APC分别为-18.70%、-5.40%，P<0.05）；男性4类主要慢性病早死概率在12.78%~17.09%波动，女性4类主要慢性病早死概率在6.59%~8.13%波动，男性4类主要慢性病早死概率均高于女性早死概率。

2014—2020年，深圳市户籍居民心脑血管疾病死亡率、标化死亡率、早死概率呈下降趋势；女性心脑血管疾病、糖尿病死亡率和标化死亡率及早死概率呈下降趋势。男性4类主要慢性病早死概率在12.78%~17.09%波动，女性早死概率在6.59%~8.13%波动，男性4类主要慢性病早死概率均高于女性早死概率。