Abstract: Objective　To analyze the data of the people in Yangzhong city who died between 2002 and 2015 due to circulatory disease，malignant tumor，diabetes，or chronic respiratory disease，and based on this，to calculate the probability of premature death of these diseases，explore the effect of demographic and non-demographic factors on the trend of the mortality rate，contributing to reducing the probability of premature death of major chronic diseases，a goal listed in the local program for achieving Healthy China 2030.Methods　The census records of Yangzhong from 2002 to 2015 were obtained from Yangzhong Public Security Bureau，and the records of deaths due to circulatory system diseases，malignant tumors，diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases in Yangzhong from 2002 to 2015 were obtained from Yangzhong Center for Disease Control and Prevention.The annual crude mortality rate，annual standardized mortality rate，and APC of four kinds of chronic diseases were calculated.Decomposition analysis was performed to examine the mortality differentials.The probability of premature death was calculated by life table method.Results　In Yangzhong City during 2002—2015，the overall annual crude mortality rate，overall annual standardized mortality rate for the 4 main chronic diseases was 648.69/100 thousands，341.26/100 thousands，respectively；the annual contribution ratio of deaths from these diseases presented an upward trend.The annual crude mortality rate of the 4 diseases was on the rise，while the annual standardized mortality rate of the 4 diseases was on the decline，which was caused by the interactions between demographic and non-demographic factors.The probability of premature mortality of each of the 4 chronic diseases showed downward trend during this period，and the probability of premature death in males was higher than that of females，while the average annual rate of change was lower than that of females.It was estimated that the expected probabilities of premature death in both males and females listed in the local program for achieving Healthy China 2030 could be attained in 2030.Conclusion　The deaths in Yangzhong City are mainly caused by these 4 diseases，and the overall mortality of these diseases is relatively high in China.Strengthening non-demographic interventions could effectively reduce the mortality rates of chronic diseases in this region，and during taking measures to reduce the probability of premature death，particular attention needs to be given to males.

Key words: Chronic disease, Mortality, Difference decomposition, Probability of premature mortality, Healthy China 2030 program

摘要： 目的　分析2002—2015年江苏省扬中市四类慢性病的死亡现况，探讨四类慢性病的早死概率、人口因素和非人口因素对慢性病死亡率变化趋势的影响，以及当地“健康中国2030”重大慢性病早死概率下降目标的实现情况。方法　于扬中市公安局获取2002—2015年扬中市人口资料，扬中市疾病预防控制中心获取2002—2015年循环系统疾病、恶性肿瘤、糖尿病和慢性呼吸系统疾病的死亡人口资料。计算四类慢性病粗死亡率、标化死亡率、年度变化百分比（APC），采用人口学的死亡率差别分解法进行死亡率差别分解分析，以寿命表法计算早死概率。结果　2002—2015年扬中市总人群四类慢性病粗死亡率为648.69/10万、标化死亡率为341.26/10万，死亡构成比呈上升趋势。总人群四类慢性病粗死亡率呈上升趋势，标化死亡率呈下降趋势，这一差异是人口、非人口因素共同作用的结果。2002—2015年扬中市总人群四类慢性病早死概率均呈下降趋势，男性早死概率高于女性，年均变化速度低于女性。预计到2030年男、女性早死概率均能实现“健康中国2030年”目标。结论　四类慢性病是当地全人群的主要死因，其死亡率在全国处于较高水平，加强非人口因素的干预力度，可有效降低本地慢性病死亡率，男性人群是降低慢性病早死概率需要关注的重点人群。

关键词: 慢性病, 死亡率, 差别分解法, 早死概率, 健康中国2030