Background The global prevalence and incidence of metabolic associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) co-occurring with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are increasing, significantly elevating the risk of liver-related adverse outcomes. In clinical practice, early screening and diagnosis of high-risk MAFLD patients with hyperglycemia are crucial to slowing disease progression.
Objective Based on the relationship between T2DM and MAFLD, this study evaluates the impact of hyperglycemia on hepatic steatosis and liver fibrosis in MAFLD using large-scale health examination data and aims to identify key factors influencing the development of MAFLD with hyperglycemia.
Methods Data from 18 286 individuals who underwent health examinations at the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University from March to July 2024 were analyzed. The dataset included demographic information, medical history, abdominal ultrasound results, biochemical markers, and routine blood tests. Individuals meeting the MAFLD diagnostic criteria were classified into the MAFLD group, which was further stratified into three subgroups according to the Fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) scores: T1 (FIB-4<1.30, n=4 275), T2 (1.30≤FIB-4≤2.67, n=924), and T3 (FIB-4>2.67, n=59). Clinical indicators among these subgroups were compared. Additionally, the MAFLD group was divided into two subgroups: MAFLD with hyperglycemia (n=752) and MAFLD without hyperglycemia (n=4 506), based on a history of diabetes, fasting blood glucose (FBG) ≥7.0 mmol/L, or glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) ≥6.5% (meeting any one criterion). Differences in hepatic steatosis and liver fibrosis-related indicators between these subgroups were analyzed. Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify key factors associated with MAFLD with hyperglycemia. The predictive performance of a combined model for MAFLD with hyperglycemia was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.
Results Among the T1, T2, and T3 groups, significant differences (P<0.05) were observed in clinical indicators, including smoking, hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, hyperuricemia, coronary heart disease, age, BMI, FBG, HbA1c, platelet count (PLT), white blood cell count (WBC), red blood cell count (RBC), hemoglobin (Hb), red blood cell distribution width (RDW), neutrophil count (NEUT), lymphocyte count (LYM), monocyte count (MONO), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), albumin (ALB), glutamyl transferase (GGT), uric acid (UA), creatinine (Cr), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), total bilirubin (TBIL), direct bilirubin (DBIL), indirect bilirubin (IBIL), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and estimated glucose processing rate (eGDR). Moreover, the fatty liver index (FLI), hepatic steatosis index (HSI), and ZJU index were significantly higher in the MAFLD with hyperglycemia group compared to the MAFLD without hyperglycemia group (P<0.05). Additionally, the FIB-4, AST/PLT ratio index (APRI), non-alcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS), and BMI, AST/ALT and diabetes score (BARD) were also higher in the MAFLD with hyperglycemia group (P<0.05). The samples of MAFLD with hyperglycemia and MAFLD without hyperglycemia groups were randomly divided into training and validation sets at 1∶1 ratio respectively. In the training set, univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses identified age, waist circumference (WC), hypertension, hyperlipidemia, TG, GGT, UA and BUN as key influencing factors associated with MAFLD with hyperglycemia (P<0.05). Further ROC analysis of these factors demonstrated moderate predictive accuracy for MAFLD with hyperglycemia (0.53≤AUC≤0.75). A predictive model incorporating these eight key factors achieved an AUC of 0.805 (95%CI=0.781-0.828), with a sensitivity of 75.8% and specificity of 72.6%. Validation of this combined model in the validation set yielded a positive predictive value of 70.5%, a negative predictive value of 73.1%, and an overall predictive accuracy of 72.7%.
Conclusion Among MAFLD patients stratified by FIB-4, significant differences in hypertension, FBG, HbA1c, PLT, WBC, RBC, LYM, AST, and eGDR were observed across the three subgroups. Hyperglycemia exacerbates hepatic steatosis and liver fibrosis in MAFLD. Furthermore, age, WC, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, TG, GGT, UA and BUN were identified as significant risk factors for the progression of MAFLD to MAFLD with hyperglycemia. The predictive model incorporating these eight indicators enhances the accuracy of assessing hyperglycemia risk in MAFLD, potentially providing a reference for the early differential diagnosis in clinical practice.