Abstract: Background　Pulmonary tuberculosis（TB） is a public health issue of global concern.Yinchuan is one of the cities with relatively poor economic development in Northwest China in which the prevention and control of TB started late.Objective　To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary TB in Yinchuan from 2008 to 2018，and to predict the incidence trend，providing a scientific basis for the prevention and control of this disease.Methods　Descriptive epidemiologic methods and estimated annual percentage change（EAPC） were used for analyzing the surveillance data of pulmonary TB in Yinchuan from 2008 to 2018，and autoregressive integrated moving average model（ARIMA） was used to predict the incidence trend from January 2019 to June 2020．Results　A total of 9 518 cases were reported in Yinchuan from 2008 to 2018.The annual incidence in this period showed a downward trend generally，and the average annual incidence was 42.71/100 000.The male-to-female incidence ratio was 1.39∶1，and the male incidence was significantly higher than that of females（49.34/100 000 vs 35.56/100 000，χ2=25.86，P<0.001）．Pulmonary TB occurred in all age groups，with the highest incidence among the elderly aged 60 and over（119.47/100 000）．Main populations of the TB were farmers 〔40.01%（3 808/9 518）〕.Yongning County had the highest average annual incidence（61.98/100 000），and Lingwu City had the lowest（34.81/100 000）．Most cases occurred in March and April.ARIMA model prediction results showed that the incidence of pulmonary TB in Yinchuan from January 2019 to June 2020 would be lower than that in 2018，showing a downward trend.Conclusion　The incidence of TB in Yinchuan City showed a downward trend from 2008 to 2018.Farmers are key populations in pulmonary TB prevention and control，and attentions should also be paid to the elderly.

Key words: Tuberculosis, Incidence, Epidemiologic methods, Data collection, Forecasting, Yinchuan

摘要： 背景　肺结核是全球关注的公共卫生问题。银川市是西北经济发展较为落后的城市之一，结核病的防治工作起步较晚。目的　分析2008—2018年银川市肺结核的流行特征，并预测发病趋势，为肺结核的防控提供科学依据。方法　采用描述性流行病学方法和年估计百分比变化（EAPC）对2008—2018年银川市肺结核监测数据进行分析，采用自回归移动平均混合模型（ARIMA）预测2019年1月—2020年6月肺结核的发病趋势。结果　2008—2018年银川市共报告肺结核9 518例，年均发病率为42.71/10万，整体呈下降趋势。男女发病率比为1.39∶1，男性肺结核发病率高于女性（49.34/10万与35.56/10万，χ2=25.86，P<0.001）；各年龄组均有病例发生，60岁及以上老年人发病率最高（119.47/10万）；发病职业以农民为主〔40.01%（3 808/9 518）〕。永宁县发病率最高（61.98/10万），灵武市最低（34.81/10万）。3、4月发病例数最多。ARIMA预测发现2019年1月—2020年6月银川市肺结核发病水平低于2018年，呈下降趋势。结论　2008—2018年银川市肺结核发病率呈整体下降趋势，农民是银川市肺结核防治工作重点，此外，应关注老年人的发病情况。

关键词: 肺结核, 发病率, 流行病学方法, 数据收集, 预测, 银川