Abstract: Background　The incidence and mortality rates of lung cancer rank first nationwide, with poor prognosis,and the disease burden is increasing with an aging population. China still lacks a high-precision monitoring system for lung cancer risk factors. Objective　To establish a high-precision early warning monitoring standard system for lung cancer and its risk factors, further implement strategies for early tumor detection, and achieve early and accurate identification of high-risk populations for malignant tumors. Methods　From August to September 2024, a preliminary pool of indicators for the early warning monitoring standard system of lung cancer was constructed by reviewing literature related to lung cancer risk factors. From October 2024 to May 2025, two rounds of expert consultations were conducted. Monitoring indicators were selected based on scores, full score rates, and coefficient of variation to establish the final early warning monitoring standard system for lung cancer. The expert consultation results are evaluated through the positive coefficients of experts, coefficient of authority, the Kendall's harmony coefficients, etc. Results　The final evaluation index system included 3 first-level indicators, 5 second-level indicators, and 20 third-level indicators. The positive coefficients of the experts in the two rounds of consultation were 77.78% and 100% respectively. The expert authority coefficients in the two rounds of consultation were 0.86 and 0.93 respectively. The Kendall's harmony coefficients for the validity score, necessity score and availability score in the second round of expert consultation were 0.243 (P<0.001), 0.298 (P<0.001) and 0.311 (P<0.001), respectively. Conclusion　The standard system for early warning and monitoring of lung cancer constructed in this study features high expert enthusiasm, good authority and coordination. The research results are scientific and reliable, providing a scientific basis for the early warning and prevention and control of lung cancer.

Key words: Lung cancer, Delphi method, Monitoring index system

摘要： 背景　肺癌发病率和死亡率位于全国第一，预后较差，疾病负担随人口老龄化加重。我国尚缺乏针对肺癌危险因素开展的高精度监测系统。目的　构建肺癌及危险因素的高精度早期预警监测标准体系，进一步落实肿瘤早发现策略，实现早期准确识别恶性肿瘤高危人群。方法　2024年8—9月查阅肺癌危险因素相关文献初步构建肺癌早期预警监测标准体系指标池。于2024年10月—2025年5月开展两轮专家咨询，根据评分、满分率和变异系数筛选监测指标，建立最终的肺癌早期预警监测标准体系。通过计算专家积极系数、权威系数、协调系数等对专家咨询结果可靠性进行评价。结果　最终构建的肺癌早期预警监测标准体系包括3项一级指标、5项二级指标和20项三级指标。两轮咨询的专家积极系数分别为77.78%和100%，专家权威系数分别为0.86和0.93。第二轮专家咨询有效性评分、必要性评分、可获得性评分的专家协调系数分别为0.243（P<0.001）、0.298（P<0.001）和0.311（P<0.001）。结论　本研究构建的肺癌早期预警监测标准体系专家积极性高、具备专业权威性，协调程度理想，研究结果科学可靠，为肺癌早期预警防控工作提供科学依据。

关键词: 肺癌, 德尔菲法, 监测指标体系