The disease burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among residents in China is relatively severe, which had become an important influencing factor in limiting the increase of healthy life expectancy of the population.

To identify the premature mortality of four major NCDs (cancer, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases) and the achievement of "Health China 2030" goal in Baise from 2015 to 2021, so as to provide reference for the development of prevention and control strategies for NCDs in western poverty-stricken regions.

The mortality data registered in the cause of death surveillance system of the Baise Center for Disease Prevention and Control from 2015-2021 was collected, indicators such as mortality and the probability of premature mortality were calculated, Joinpoint 24.0 software was used to describe the trend of change in terms of average annual percentage change (AAPC) and rate.

The crude mortality of the four major NCDs was 549.06/100 000 (AAPC=0.13%) and the age-standardized mortality was 302.92/100 000 (AAPC=-5.66%) from 2015-2021, with no significant change in any of them (P>0.05). The age-standardized mortality in women showed a significant decrease (AAPC=-1.66%, P=0.046). There was an increasing trend in the crude mortality for cardiovascular disease in the total population, males, and females (AAPC=2.74%, P=0.004; AAPC=2.43%, P=0.013; AAPC=3.17%, P=0.011), and a decreasing trend in the standardized mortality rate for chronic respiratory diseases in men and women (AAPC=-8.66%, P=0.023; AAPC=-8.17%, P=0.027). The probability of premature mortality of the four major NCDs was 15.77%, 26.03% and 10.42% for the total population, men and women, with a decreasing trend from chronic respiratory diseases (AAPC=-6.89%, P=0.012; AAPC=-7.18%, P=0.007; AAPC=-6.94%, P=0.020). The probability of premature mortality from four NCDs in men was about 2.5 times higher than that in women. According to the average growth rate of the probability of premature mortality of the 4 NCDs in Baise City from 2015-2021, the probability of premature mortality of the four major NCDs was projected to be 14.62% in 2030, while the goal of the probability of premature mortality was 13.69%, only the goal of the women, cancer and chronic respiratory diseases is higher than the projected. To achieve the 2030 target, the average rate of decline in the probability of premature death for the four chronic diseases from 2021 to 2030 will need to be increased to 2.63%, with the average rate of decline for men increasing to 2.70%. The probability of early death of diabetes should be paid attention to, its predicted value is lower than the target value and the gap is large, and the decline rate should be increased to 6.76%.

Crude mortality of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases showed an increasing trend, whereas the mortality and the probability of premature mortality from chronic respiratory diseases showed an obvious decrease. Based on the current average growth rate, it is predicted that Baise City is still far from realizing the target value of "Healthy China 2030", men should be the primary focus group, and the main intervention diseases should be diabetes, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, so that the average growth rate from 2021 to 2030 can reach -2.63%, to achieve the goal of "Healthy China 2030".

我国居民慢性非传染性疾病（慢性病）疾病负担较严峻，已成为制约人群健康期望寿命提高的重要影响因素。

了解百色市2015—2021年4类重大慢性病（恶性肿瘤、心脑血管疾病、糖尿病和慢性呼吸系统疾病）早死情况及实现"健康中国2030"目标情况，为制定西部贫困地区慢性病防控策略提供借鉴。

收集2015—2021年登记在百色市疾病预防控制中心死因监测系统的死亡数据，计算死亡率、早死概率等指标，运用Joinpoint 24.0软件，以平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）和率的变化趋势进行描述。

2015—2021年，百色市4类慢性病粗死亡率为549.06/10万（AAPC=0.13%），标化死亡率为302.92/10万（AAPC=-5.66%），变化趋势均无统计学意义（P>0.05）；女性4类慢性病标化死亡率呈下降趋势（AAPC=-1.66%，P=0.046）。其中总人群、男性、女性心脑血管疾病粗死亡率呈上升趋势（AAPC=2.74%，P=0.004；AAPC=2.43%，P=0.013；AAPC=3.17%，P=0.011），男性、女性慢性呼吸系统疾病标化死亡率呈下降趋势（AAPC=-8.66%，P=0.023；AAPC=-8.17%，P=0.027）。总人群、男性、女性4类慢性病早死概率分别为15.77%、26.03%、10.42%，其慢性呼吸系统疾病早死概率均呈下降趋势（AAPC=-6.89%，P=0.012；AAPC=-7.18%，P=0.007；AAPC=-6.94%，P=0.020）。男性4类慢性病早死概率约为女性的2.5倍。按照百色市2015—2021年4类慢性病早死概率平均增长速度，预计2030年百色市4类慢性病早死概率为14.62%，而2030年4类慢性病早死概率目标值为13.69%，只有女性、恶性肿瘤和慢性呼吸系统疾病早死概率目标值高于预测值。需将2021—2030年4类慢性病早死概率的平均下降速度提高至2.63%，才能实现2030年的早死概率目标，其中男性的平均下降速度应提高至2.70%。糖尿病早死概率应被重点关注，其预测值低于目标值且差距较大，下降速度应提高至6.76%。

2015—2021年百色市总人群、男性、女性心脑血管疾病粗死亡率呈上升趋势，慢性呼吸系统疾病死亡率和早死概率呈下降趋势。以目前平均增长速度预测，百色市距离实现"健康中国2030"目标值尚有差距。应以男性为重点关注人群，以糖尿病和心脑血管疾病为重点干预疾病，使2021—2030年平均增长速度达到-2.63%，才可实现"健康中国2030"目标。