Background There has been a widespread concern over the issue of the negative effects of brain cancer on physical and mental health, but there are few studies on the past and future trends of brain cancer mortality in China.
Objective To perform an analysis of the trend of crude mortality rate (CMR) of brain cancers in 2000-2019, and that in 2020-2024 in China, providing a reference for formulating prevention and control strategies for brain cancers.
Methods Data of brain cancer deaths in China from 2000 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, including CMR and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR, calculated using the age composition of the 2019 world population). The mortality trend was analyzed by Joinpoint regression model. The age, period and birth cohort effects of CMR were estimated by intrinsic estimator (IE) and age-period-cohort model (APC model). GM (1, 1) model was established by R (4.1.3) to predict the CMR of brain cancers in 2020-2024.
Results The Joinpoint regression analysis the ASMR of brain cancers showed a downward trend in the whole population, male and female populations. The ASMR of brain cancers in the whole population, male and female populations decreased by 0.68%, 0.47%, and 0.87% on average each year, respectively from 2000 to 2019 (P<0.05). The APC analysis revealed that the death risk of brain cancers in both Chinese male and female populations increased with age and period. The death risk of brain cancers in the late birth cohort was lower than that in the early birth cohort, that is, the effect coefficient decreased from 0.62 in the 1904-1908 birth cohort to -1.28 in the 2014-2019 birth cohort in male, and that increased from 0.36 in the 1904-1908 female cohort to 0.57 in the 1929-1933 birth cohort, then it gradually decreased, and hit its lowest point in the 2014-2019 birth cohort (-1.16) in female. GM (1, 1) model predicted that the CMR of brain cancers in China would continue to rise after 2019, reaching 4.34/105 in 2020, 4.39/105 in 2021, 4.44/105 in 2022, 4.49/105 in 2023 and 4.54/105 in 2024.
Conclusion During 2000 to 2019, the ASMR of brain cancers in China generally showed a downward trend, and the risk of brain cancer death increased with age and year. People who were born earlier had a greater risk of death. The predicted ASMR of brain cancers would continue to rise in 2020-2024. So strong measures should be still carried out to prevent and control brain cancers, such as strengthening the propaganda of prevention and control of brain cancers in high-risk groups, advocating a healthy lifestyle, and reducing the disease burden of brain cancers.
