Abstract: Objective　To investigate the relationship between the mortality rate of cardio-cerebrovascular disease and the emission of main air pollutants，and based on this，to explore the influence of air quality on the incidence of such kind of disease and people's health.Methods　We conducted this cross-sectional study in a simple random sample of 15 representative provinces （municipalities）.Using the mean mortality rates of coronary heart disease （CHD） and cerebrovascular disease （CD），mean emission of SO2，NOx and dust as variables of Y1，Y2，X1，X2，X3，respectively.We established multiple linear regression model 1 for investigating the relationship between mortality rate of CHD and air quality，and multiple linear regression model 2 for investigating the relationship of mortality rate of CD with air quality.SAS software was used to perform the analysis based on ridge regression model.Results　The formula for calculating the mortality rate of CHD was derived from model 1：Y1=0.022 08+0.287 93X1+0.188 73X2+0.272 63X3（R2=0.879 2，F=4.58，P=0.018 2），showing that the mortality rate of CHD was positively correlated with the emission of SO2，NOx and dust，and it was influenced the most by the emission of SO2，followed by the emission of dust and NOx.The formula for calculating the mortality rate of CD was derived from model 2：Y2=0.018 77+0.394 69X1+0.147 97X2+0.244 25X3（R2=0.897 4，F=5.68，P=0.008 4），indicating that the mortality rate of CD was positively correlated with the emission of SO2，NOx and dust，and it was affected the most by the emission of SO2，followed by the emission of dust and NOx.Conclusion　The mortality rate of cardio-cerebrovascular disease is closely related to air pollution.Air quality is an important factor associated with cardio-cerebrovascular disease and people's health.Therefore，it is urgent to control air pollution to promote people's health.

Key words: Coronary disease, Cerebrovascular disorders, Air pollutants, Air quality, Linear models, Ridge regression

摘要： 目的　分析心脑血管疾病死亡率与空气主要污染物排放量的关系，探讨空气质量对心脑血管疾病的影响及对人群健康的危害。方法　采用简单随机抽样法选取15个代表省（直辖市）进行研究，2015年各省（直辖市）冠心病死亡率为Y1，脑血管疾病死亡率为Y2，二氧化硫排放量为X1，氮氧化物排放量为X2，粉尘排放量为X3，初步建立多重线性回归模型，冠心病死亡率与空气质量关系所建立的模型为模型1，脑血管疾病死亡率与空气质量关系所建立的模型为模型2；采用SAS软件进行岭回归分析，建立岭回归模型。结果　模型1为Y1=0.022 08+0.287 93X1+0.188 73X2+0.272 63X3（R2=0.879 2，F=4.58，P=0.018 2），模型显示冠心病死亡率与二氧化硫、氮氧化物和粉尘排放量呈正相关，二氧化硫排放量对冠心病死亡影响最大，其次是粉尘和氮氧化物排放量；模型2为Y2=0.018 77+0.394 69X1+0.147 97X2+0.244 25X3（R2=0.897 4，F=5.68，P=0.008 4），模型显示脑血管疾病死亡率与二氧化硫、氮氧化物和粉尘排放量呈正相关，二氧化硫排放量对脑血管疾病死亡影响最大，其次是粉尘和氮氧化物排放量。结论　心脑血管疾病死亡率与空气污染联系紧密，空气质量是导致心脑血管疾病、严重影响人群健康的重要因素，治理空气污染促进人群健康迫在眉睫。

关键词: 冠心病, 脑血管障碍, 空气污染物, 空气质量, 线性模型, 岭回归